Courtnall for Kordic - 20 years later

Remembering the Courtnall for Kordic deal. A deal that would have been vetoed instantly by any PIM free fantasy league.

I feel sorry for Stellick, he has been destroyed for that deal for 20 years. It is not like Russ Courtnall was a perennial All-Star. I mean he broke 30+ goals once in his career and he played the majority of his career in an era when 70+ goal scorers were not freaks.

The Gilmour deal by Risebrough, Luongo deal by Milbury, Bertuzzi deal by Milbury, Neely deal by Harry Neale, Roy deal by Houle and so on and so on were much more devestating to franchises then losing a one dimensional 20 goal scorer.

I think that the fact that it happened between the Habs and Leafs with Montreal once again getting the better of the deal is what gives this deal legs. That and the chaos that followed around Kordic. It was amazing to me that while with the Nordiques, they believed it was a good idea to make him and Bryan Fogarty roommates. They figured both guys could keep each other on the path to recovery. Kordic died at 27, Fogarty at 32. One need not wonder why the Nords finished in last place for 4-5 years after wisdom like that.

One thing is for sure, to get a Leaf fan going, the mention of this trade works wonders.

FIRE AND ICE - November 3/08

Wow, what a week for the Los Angeles Ducks of Anaheim.

The Hot list this week is filled with flaming Ducks.It was like watching NHL HITZ when a player gets hot and bursts into flames for 90 seconds, another week like this and we can put them in a bucket and pawn them off as fried chicken.

HOT

Ryan Getzlaf - ANA - 2G, 8A - 1o PTS

Getzlaf sparked the outburst with a 5 pt game and a couple of 2 pointers.

Corey Perry - ANA - 2G, 7A, 9 PTS

The former London Knight was not far behind with a 5 pt game as well, after just 1 point in his first 6 games Perry is working on a 7 game point streak.

Teemu Selanne - ANA - 6G, 3A, 9 PTS

Just when you think the Finnish Flash is done, he turns back the clock to 1993 and the images of him shooting his glove from out of the air during his rookie year return.

Simon Gagne - PHI - 3G, 5 A, 8 PTS

A huge week and a welcome return by Simon Gagne. I still can't shake the feeling that he is one headshot away from needing to remove his clothes to count to 11.

Chris Pronger - ANA - 2G, 4A, 6 PTS

A huge week from the backend by Pronger this week. I don't know if a backend has performed that well since the release of Buttman went to Africa.

Shane Doan - PHX - 2G, 4A, 6 PTS

A monster week for Doan as he put up the points in only 3 games. Another ex Jet doing Winnipeg proud. They need to hold on to something.

Michael Cammalleri - CGY - 2G, 3A, 5 PTS

Welcome back to the land of the living Mr. Cammalleri

Tim Thomas - BOS - 3 WINS, 0.99 GAA, .970 SV%

Kudos to Thomas, a man who continues to excel with very little talent. If I took some footage of him and decolourized and placed a fibreglass mask on him, you would think you were watching Mike Palmateer. Only problem, this is 2008.

Honourable mention: Carey Price, Miika Kiprusoff, Mike Knuble, Derrick Brassard

COLD

Ed Jovanovski - PHX - 0 PTS

Jovanovski has registered zero points on the season. Not what was expected after his bounceback season of 2008.

Marty Turco - DAL - o WINS, 5.04 GAA, .800 SV%

Jesus, could you suck anymore Marty? For his draft position, he must be up there on the biggest disppointments of 2009 so far. Dallas has to get better, right?

Jonathon Toews - CHI - 0G, 1A, 1PT, -1

A disappointing start for the Chicago captain, with his lacklustre start to the season he has already plummeted down my keeper list, temporarily I am sure.

Nik Backstrom - WAS - oG, 1A, 1PT, -1

Get well soon Grandpa Ovechkin

Keith Tkachuk - STL - oG, oA, -1

THUD! That my friends is the sound of another former Jet crashing back to 36 year old reality

Stephane Robidas - DAL - oG, oA, +1

I wonder if Robidas can hear Zubov's footsteps. Reality called and Robidas finally answered.

Aaron Voros - NYR - oG, oA, -1

Hey Aaron, if somebody calls your cell phone with a Hartford area code, don't answer the phone, it's probably the Wolfpack.

The Links - November 3, 2008

Looks like the Rick Nash experiment at center is over. RJ Umberger has been moved back up to the top line to remove any pressure from the club's leading scorer, rookie Derrick Brassard. The Columbus staff wants to remove Brassard from the pressure of opposition's top checking units. Brassard will remain with Voracek and Chimera, if the Jackets want to retain Rick Nash past next season, they need to put pretty boy with Nash soon.

Is Ilya Kovalchuk on the move? Rumblings are beginning in Atlanta that Ilya Kovalchuk is tired of playing for a piss poor franchise and wants out. I would love to say that it is unlikely that he is traded, but we are talking about Don Waddel here. The same guy who in the last two seasons has unloaded Braydon Coburn and Marian Hossa for Alexei Zhitnik, Colby Armstron, Erik Christensen and Angelo Esposito. One of the rumours is Toronto, a package of Grabovski, Ian White and Robbie Earl sounds just about right for Waddell.

I always love when a player flies out of the gates and people lose their minds in praise. We have Alexander Semin exploding out of the gate and taking shots at Sidney Crosby.

Now we have the inevitable is Semin better than Ovechkin argument. Does everybody forget WTF just happened 4 months ago? Since when does 10 games put you in the same class as somebody who has done it for three seasons, owns a Calder trophy and an MVP all at the age of 23? Can we get the guy who wrote this into my pool, trade him Ovechkin and allow me to trade Semin to him? Can we make this happen?

Perusing the stats this morning it occurs to me that three goalie's have started every game this season. Martin Brodeur, Miikka Kiprusoff and Jason Labarbera?? Finally somebody in LA has come to their senses and is giving Erik Ersberg a chance?

Alex Goligoski is the new Zarley Zalapski!! High praise indeed. If only he can match Zalapski's feat of playing for 15 professional teams in his career. Aim high Alex!!

Larry Brooks letting out some frustration in regards to the usage of Scott Gomez. He definitely has a point. Why pay a guy 6M+ per season and play him with Nigel Dawes and Ryan Callahan. Can you throw the guy a bone and line him up with Naslund and Zherdev?

Poor Henrik Zetterberg, Hossa and Datysuk seem to be soul mates and he seems to be spinning his wheel with his second choice.

Interesting tidbits from Eric Duhatschek. Mikko Koivu is breathing some rarified air. His start to the season has placed him in elite company including Gretzky, Oates, Jagr, Forsberg and the great Mario Lemieux. Also for those fantasy enthusiasts impressed with Tim Thomas' back to back 1-0 shutouts, it has only been done ONCE before in NHL history.....by future Hall of Famer Craig Anderson. Newsflash, Thomas still sucks.

Bargain hunting - Nov 1, 2008

It is funny when a teenager shops they look for the most expensive item in the shop to buy. After paying the 1000% markup on the sweatshop produced product they spend the next 2 months telling others how extremely expensive their purchase is. Some adults never grow out of this and continue to show off their Iphones, Porsches and $40 water bottle from Lululemon.

Most adults switch to the other extreme and go from bragging about the cost of products to bragging how cheap they picked up their latest bargain. Bragging about cheap acquisitions in fantasy goes hand in hand with the game.

In fantasy hockey it is imperative to pick bargains off the waiver wire if you want to win a championship. Maybe it takes an extra hour scouring the bargain racks at Winners to find the hidden gems, but once found, you have just acquired an asset as valuable as the $90 Lululemon pants at a fraction of the cost.

Let's go looking through the bargain racks, I will try to let you know wether to pass on, or take advantage of a bargain.

Mason Raymond - LW - Vancouver Canucks

Raymond is slightly undersized at 6'0" and 190 lbs but possesses lightning speed and great dangling abilities. He is dangerous on the powerplay and with up to 3 minutes of time and exposure with the struggling swedes could enjoy a breakout season. He lacks physical strength which could ultimately derail a breakout, but he is definitely worth a cheap pickup.

Andy Greene - D - New Jersey Devils

A disappointing 2008 has left Greene with very little hype entering this season. Although his PP time is not in line with Paul Martin's his offensive anticipation, skating and passing skills are offensive in nature and with 6 PT in his first 6 games is a solid bargain acquisition. Adding a 35-40 PT d-man in a deep league could be a huge acquisition at this point in the season.

Mike Knuble - RW - Philadelphia Flyers

Knuble is 36 years old, has never been one of the sexier fantasy picks but with the lack of elite level right wingers available is a must add bargain. He has exploded in his last 4 games for 5 goals and playing on the upper two lines on Philly with an abundance of power play time he could enjoy a solid season. At this price he is a definite bargain.

Milan Lucic - LW - Boston Bruins

Lucic was the darling of the first round of the playoffs last season and has exploded in the last week for 5 points in 4 games. In a keeper league he is a must add as his blend of toughness and scoring ability has Bruins fans envisioning the return of Cam Neely. High praise, but 75% of Neely would make this a monster bargain.

Mike Smith - G - Tampa Bay Lightning

Smith has capitalized on his first real starting opportunity in Tampa Bay. The wins are not there, but a 2.12 GAA and a .942 SV% have been an early season fantasy surprise. It was hard to get a read on Smith's real talent as he played in the offensive stifling Dallas Stars system, in a keeper league he is a definite bargain add and stash. For this season, I think the Lightning are destined to miss the playoffs, but with only Kolzig pushing him Smith will probably get a huge workload. Definite bargain.

Clarke MacArthur - LW - Buffalo Sabres

MacArthur has finally received his NHL opportunity and his personal performance has mimicked the fast start of the Sabres. He has strong offensive instincts, and may fight his way on to the upper two lines with continued production. His potential has been tabbed as a third liner but with the second line in reach in Buffalo may be worth an add.

Sergei Zubov - D - Dallas Stars

If somebody has not had the vision to add this guy and stash him, go get him right now. He is still an elite level offensive producer, as for all you Stephane Robidas owners.....well, it was fun while it lasted.

Mike Van Ryn - D - Toronto Maple Leafs

Van Ryn is very underrated and because of an injury prone 2008 has flown under many fantasy radars. With two 37 point campaigns under his belt already and the possibility of being used as Kaberle's triggerman, Van Ryn could become a very valuable 3rd-4th d-man and a strong bargain.

Alex Ponikoravsky - LW - Toronto Maple Leafs

A member of the giant twin underachievers in Toronto the past 4 seasons, Ponikoravsky has put up 7 points in his last 5 games and 18 points over his last 21 games dating back to last season. Ponikoravsky has never produced with the Big Swede beside him and has a tendency for streaky play, a tendency his twin Borat also shares. He is receiving big PP minutes, but even though the Leafs are underrated with little talent surrounding him and a team that has committed to defense, don't expect this production to continue. No bargain to be had here.

Tim Thomas - G - Boston Bruins

With back to back shutouts in the last week he has most likely been scooped up in most fantasy leagues, but Thomas overpursues, is inconsistent will not keep up this performance. With a possible tandem in the wings with Fernandez (and don't kid yourself, the Bruins are not going to staple 4.5M goalie to the bench) and super prospect Tuuka Rask on the farm he is a short term shot in the arm. As for his lofty perch in the rankings right now, highly doubtful he maintains it.

Aaron Voros - RW - NY Rangers

Everybody come to their senses yet?

Keeping Track of the Powerplay

Break through. Two of the most important words in fantasy sports. It is why millions of game players spend time pouring over stats, endlessly searching for the uncovered gem. The $100 hockey player that you can acquire for $5. The player that can make or break a championship season, the player that you can talk about for the next 10 seasons.

Well, one of the greatest indicators of increased responsibility is ice time. Specifically power play time. Look no further than Filip Kuba to find a benefactor of increased PP responsibility. While a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning Kuba averaged 3:37 min of PP time per game, in 2009 with the Senators Kuba has been a PP machine and has seen his PP minutes increase to 6:13. His production has been obscene so far, and I do not expect him to maintain this level, but if you want a possible reason why is output has doubled....just look at his power play minutes.

We all know the Crosby, Spezza's and Ovechkin's are going to get massive minutes, but here are some names that are getting a chance to improve their productivity.

Anaheim Ducks - Travis Moen (0:50) and Ryan Carter (0:58) are up almost a minute on their 2008 minutes. Moen has seen a susbtantial production boost because of it.

Atlanta Thrashers - Tobias Enstrom (3:19) seems to be a major victim with the arrival of Matt Schneider and Ron Hainsey. He has been replaced on the first unit and his minutes are down over 2 minutes. Todd White (4:52) is up 2 minutes on last season's total and Bryan Little (4:05) is up a minute as well. The Thrashers seem to be still auditioning a running mate for Kovalchuk as Jason Williams (3:27) has also surpassed the 3 minute mark.

Boston Bruins - Michael Ryder (3:37) is back to his normal PP minutes and Milan Lucic (1:49) is up 40+ seconds on his 2008 totals. Dennis Wideman (2:19) has had his minutes reduced well over a minute as the Bruins have been playing around with an extra forward on their unit.

Buffalo Sabres - In the arm pit of America Andrej Sekera (4:19) has seen an increase of 3+ minutes. Clarke MacArthur (2:56) is also up a minute and a half, with Nathan Paetsch (2:46) up a minute as well.

Calgary Flames - Mark Giordano (3:19) is getting a nice run on the Flames PP, as well as Adam Pardy (2:32). Dustin Boyd (1:24) is up marginally as well.

Carolina Hurricanes - For some reason a member of the Marian Havorik All-Stars, Tuomo Ruutu (4:58) is leading all Canes in PP ice time, up almost 2:30 from his 2008 totals. Why Sergei Samsonov (3:16) continues to get this type of PP run is beyond me. Dennis Seidenberg (3:08) is also working on a 30+ second increase.

Chicago Blackhawks - The biggest surprise in Chicago is the minutes rookie Kris Versteeg (2:57) is clocking. Dave Bolland (2:18) is also been rewarded with double his minutes. Troy Brouwer (2:09) is also getting a look as he is above the 2 minute mark.

Colorado Avalanche - Milan Hejduk (5:36) is up almost 2 minutes per game. Wojtek Wolski (1:30) and Brett Clark (1:18) have seen their minutes drop dramatically, with Clark seeing almost a two minute reduction. Sideshow Bob Darcy Tucker (2:04) is getting a good secondary run. I am pretty sure the Avs will not be happy with him taking 10 empty nets to score 2 goals.

Columbus Blue Jackets - Christian Backman (4:08) and Kriss Russell (3:53) seem to be the PP quarterbacks in Buckeye country, and people wonder why the Jackets have never made the playoffs. Jakub Voracek (2:34) and Derrick Brassard (2:51) are getting a nice rookie run, the same cannot be said for Nikita Filatov (0:05).

Dallas Stars - Stephane Robidas (5:30) has been the biggest beneficiary of Sergei Zubov's absence as he is up almost 3 minutes on his 2008 totals. Loui Erikkson (3:32) is also getting nice run, his PP time is up over 2 minutes. The wonderkid Fabian Brunnstrom (2:38) is also getting a nice secondary run.

Detroit Red Wings - The Wings are stacked and a player like Brad Stuart (0:09) is paying for it. He is used to 3+ minutes of PP time and is down to almost nothing in Motown. Dan Cleary (1:03) is down a minute and a half to just over a minute.

Edmonton Oilers - Dustin Penner (0:50) is down almost 3 minutes from his 2008 PP time due to the arrival of Erik Cole, Lubomir Visnovsky (4:29) has sucked up all the departed Pitkanen's minutes.

Florida Panthers - Cory Stillman (4:58) has stepped in and replaced Jokinen's minutes in Florida, Stephen Weiss (3:46) and Nathan Horton (4:45) and David Booth (3:04) have also benefitted from increased PP time in the Panthers youth movement. Cory Murphy (2:54) and Richard Zednik (2:21) have been the most affected by the deal as their minutes are substantially down.

Los Angeles Kings - Dustin Brown (4:50) and Jarret Stoll (4:39) have benefitted from the departure of Mike Cammalleri, they are up over a minute per game in PP minutes. Peter Harrold (4:12), Peter who? is getting a nice audition as he is up almost 4 minutes. Michael Handzus (3:37) and his hair are getting another chance to be an offensive contributor, up over 3 minutes per game. The Kings are also easing super prospects Jack Johnson (2:26) and Drew Doughty (4:06) into increased responsibility. How many Leaf fans would trade places with King fans right now?

Minnesota Wild - Mikko Koivu (4:42) has taken the ball and run with his extra minutes, as has Anti Miettenen (4:32). Benoit Pouliot (2:25), Tomas Mojzis (2:33) and Eric Belanger (2:59) have also been given a seconday look.

Montreal Canadiens - Sergei Kostitsyn (3:02) has been give a look as a Mark Streit replacement and other than a minor increase in Guillame Latendresse's (1:49) minutes, things remain mostly the same with the league's top unit.

Nashville Predators - Shea Weber (5:13) and Ryan Suter (4:53) have stepped into the void left by Marek Zidlicky. Ryan Jones (3:09) is also getting a nice look, usurping some of the minutes left behind by Alexander Radulov.

New Jersey Devils - Ansi Salmela (3:02) is averaging over 3 minutes per game, mind you it is only over a 3 game window. David Clarkson (1:43) and Mike Mottau (1:50) have also been given an opportunity, otherwise the same familiar faces on the Devils unit.

NY Islanders - Why is Kyle Okposo (1:02) averaging just over a minute per game? Is Doug Weight really going to be beneficial to this team beyond December? Why bother with this mess? Mark Streit (6:29), you ain't in Kansas anymore. No Markov or Kovalev to feed you the puck, good luck with that.

NY Rangers - Aaron Voros (2:13) is getting a chance to see what life is like outside the penalty box, remember, Tie Domi fancied himself a goal scorer one year. Whatever happened to Peter Prucha (0:41)?

Ottawa Senators - Filip Kuba (6:13) is receiving an obscene amount of ice time on the powerplay. Alexandre Picard (5:09) is also over 5 minutes and has been given an opportunity to make a fantasy impact. Nick Foligno (2:18) is also up over a minute and a half from his rookie season.

Philadelphia Flyers - Rookie Luca Sbisa (2:30) is getting every opportunity to make an impact as an 18 year old. With the lack of defensive depth in Philadelphia Steve Eminger (1:37) has been given a chance to untap the potential he had forecast for him as a junior.

Phoenix Coyotes - Michael Boedker (2:30) and Kyle Turris (2:27) have been given every opportunity to succeed as rookies. Kevin Porter (1:59) is also getting a look on the PP with close to two minutes per game.

Pittsburgh Penguins - Alex Goligoski (4:35) has received the bulk of the minutes on the PP due to the injuries to Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney. Kris Letang (2:38) has also been given an opportunity to fill the PP void. Jeff Taffe (2:29) and Tyler Kennedy (1:55) have also been given an opportunity to impact the powerful Penguins unit.

San Jose Sharks - Marc-Edouard Vlasic (3:41) is up almost 3 minutes over his 2008 totals replacing Rivet, Campbell, Ozolinsh and their minutes. Joe Pavelski (3:24) and Ryan Clowe's (3:24) power play minutes are also up over a minute.

St. Louis Blues - Lee Stempniak (4:33) is up over two minutes per game and rookies Alex Pietrangelo (2:45) and Patrick Berglund (2:02) have also been given a nice opportunity to make an offensive impact.

Tampa Bay Lightning - Paul Ranger (4:00) is up over two and a half minutes and seems to have inherited the keys to the powerplay from Dan Boyle. Off season acquisition Radim Vrbata (3:22) has also been given an opportunity to show that ownership's spending spree was not a waste. Matt Carle (2:47), Jamie Heward (2:31) and Janne Niskala (2:16) have also been rewarded an opportunity to replace the minutes from the departed Boyle.

Toronto Maple Leafs - The new look Leafs have plenty of benefactors of the departure of the majority of the Muskoka Five. Mike Van Ryn (3:14), Anton Stralman (3:00), Mikael Grabovski(3:08), Niklas Hagman (3:03) and Matt Stajan (3:03) are all receiving over three minutes per game.

Vancouver Canucks - Kyle Wellwood (3:36) the slacker with great offensive instincts is being given every opportunity to produce on the west coast. Jason Krog (3:25) and Steve Bernier (3:17) have also been given the chance to replace the departing Naslund and Morrison.

Washington Capitals - Brooks Laich (3:02), Tomas Fleischman (2:45) and Christopher Bourque (2:59) are getting increased minutes and a secondary opportunity to break through in 2009

Real or Illusion?

In fantasy sports the first month of the season can unearth a ton of gems, it can determine the champion of your league.

But it could also lead to somebody dropping Scott Niedermayer for Filip Kuba.

No player cost more fantasy squads in the mid 90s than Mr. October himself Brian Savage. Savage used to explode out of the gate with 10-15 goals through 30 games and finish up the season in the low 20s. Picking up a guy who is destined to score 5 goals through the next 50 games is not exactly a shrewd buy. Well Buyer Beware. Fantasy Sense is here to determine who is a Savage and those likely to be the Anti-Savage.

Mikko Koivu - 25 - Minnesota Wild

Career High: 54 PTS 2009 Pace: 152 PTS

Koivu is the early fantasy darling of 2009. A huge start has the pre-season sleeper on a 152 pt pace and has inflated his keeper value to elite proportions. Mikko has positive factors for continued success in first line minutes, power play time and a lethal sniper in Gaborik on his wing, he also has the Wild's stifling system which can hold him back. Players do not jump from 54 pts to low 100s, but Koivu's breakout season is for real, and with this monster start should break PPG barrier. ANTI-SAVAGE

Paul Kariya - 34 - St. Louis Blues

Career High - 108 PTS 2009 Pace: 123 PTS

Even though on first glance it would appear that Kariya could return to 100+ points due to his career best, one has to realize that 108 PT season was 13 seasons ago. The last time Kariya broke 100 PTS, Eric Lindros was still considered a Superstar. Kariya exploded out of the gate in 2008 with 16 PTS in 12 games and finished the season with 49 PTS in his last 70 games to finish with 65. Even though Kariya is surrounded by rising young talent, he is screaming SAVAGE.

Patrick Sharp - 27 - Chicago Blackhawks

Career High - 62 PTS 2009 Pace: 110 PTS

Sharp is off to a flying start and was probably owned due to his breakout 2008 season. Although a 100+ point pace is very unlikely, the presence of Toews, Kane and Havlat make a career high likely this season. Sharp has made some nice gains in each of the last 3 seasons and will continue to improve this year. ANTI-SAVAGE

Zach Parise - 24 - New Jersey Devils

Career High - 65 PTS 2009 Pace: 113 PTS

Parise is a future All-Star and with his inspired start to the season is a good bet for a career year. Parise has been banging on the door of the elite wingers in the league for the last two seasons and I would be shocked if he did not breakthrough in 2009. He does suffer from playing on the conservative Devils, but from viewing him this season looks like an ANTI-SAVAGE

Filip Kuba - 32 - Ottawa Senators

Career High - 37 PTS 2009 Pace: 100 PTS

SAVAGE! SAVAGE! SAVAGE! If you are looking to add a defenseman who will score 30 PTS in the next 70 games then Filip Kuba is your man. Sure a jump in production was a possibility with a new role and responsibilities in Ottawa, but he screams sell high. SAVAGE

Aaron Voros - 27 - NY Rangers

Career High - 14 PTS 2009 Pace: 62 PTS

No need to waste minutes of your life that you can never get back with an explanation. 2 PTS in his last 7 games. SAVAGE

Shea Weber - 23 - Nashville Predators

Career High - 40 PTS 2009 Pace: 92 PTS

There is likely only one 80 PT defenseman in the NHL and he has a Norris trophy for every finger. But this kid is the real deal, the only reason he did not breakout last season was an early season knee injury that forced an uphill climb all year. Weber has all the skills to be an elite defenseman in the NHL for the next 15 years. ANTI-SAVAGE

Kris Versteeg - RW - Chicago Blackhawks

Career High - 8 PTS 2009 Pace: 73 PTS

The 22 year old is definitely worth a stash in a keeper league. With Kane and Havlat ahead of him on the depth chart the small speedy winger is unlikely to get the type of minutes to maintain this pace. He is not a can't miss prospect, but with the emergence of small speedy wingers in the NEW NHL, he could surprise a lot of people. SAVAGE FOR 2009

Pre-Season Projections

Every season I deal with the onslaught of predictions from the experts of the fantasy hockey world.

In 2005-06 it was Carolina and Buffalo were the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference (both teams would make the Eastern Conference Finals that season), in 2007-08 it was the Montreal Canadiens would miss the playoffs, and we need to look no further then what is going on in baseball right now with the 100-1 longshot Tampa Rays.

This just in, the sportswriters of North America don't have a delorean in their driveway and access to Biff Tannen's Sports Almanac. Who will be injured? Will a stud from the minors emerge altering the existing food chain? Will one player make the leap and positively effect the point totals of their linemates? Will a coach fired mid season change the philosophy of a team from offensive to defensive effecting every players stats on the team? Will a player rebound from a terrible year? How will the powerplay minutes be distributed?

So guided by this knowledge why the hell do people buy into stat projections?

Take a look at Dobber hockey and their pre-season projections for the Montreal Canadiens last season.

Saku Koivu - 77GP - 20G - 49A - 69PTS - 56PTS
Well the Dobber nailed the GP. Koivu finished the season on the second line and struggled through a healthy season to finish up with 56 pts. He suffered his worst season since his rookie year which was preceded by a career year in 2007. That projection is the difference between picking Koivu 3-4 rounds to early in your draft

Alex Kovalev - 70 GP - 18G - 33A - 51PTS - 84PTS
Why not just post up the 2007 seasons stats and forego the prediction? Alex Kovalev had a HUGE season which resulted in 84 pts. His emergence helped Andrei Kostitsyn and Tomas Plekanec make a great statistical leap and knock Koivu, Higgins and Ryder to the 2nd line. This is one of the main pieces of evidence which show stat projections are useless.

Tomas Plekanec - 80 GP - 22G - 31A - 53PTS - 69PTS

Plekanec had a strong kick to finish up the 2007 season and had shown signs of blossoming, but this projection is very safe at best. Well, with 69 pts Plekanec ascended to the number one center position and with Kovalev and Kostitsyn became the number one line and powerplay unit.

Michael Ryder - 81GP - 30G - 30A - 60PTS - 31PTS

The poster boy for being ignored due to emerging talent. Ryder seemed like a lock for 30G and 55-60 pts because of his previous 3 seasons. Well Andrei Kostitsyn stole his first unit powerplay time and a demotion to the second and third line and the poor season by Koivu lead to Ryder a 31 pt season and a ticket out of town.

Carey Price - No Games Played - 24Wins

The expectation that Price would not make the NHL in 2008 was fairly unimaginative. After leading Hamilton to the Calder Cup as the MVP and with incumbent Cristobal Huet approaching a contract year it would have been pretty conservative for the Canadiens to leave Price in Hamilton. Price forced the Canadiens hand and was dominant down the stretch. One player being promoted changed the fortunes of Huet and Halak.

Fantasysense is just pointing out the lack of common sense in projecting situations that are impossible to predict. The projections are generally based on the previous season, so why not just view last season's stats and go from there? Players have comeback seasons, players have bad years, players get injured.

Most of these projections are safe because the individual prognisticator is interested in erring on the side of caution. They want the ability to toss out "well who knew he was going to play on the first line?" They undervalue with modest projections in order to save face. If they tell you that Plekanec is going to finish with 75+ points and he gets 50, the individual who drafted him will be pissed off at the prognosticator for wasting a pick to early. If they say 58 pts and he finishes with 70 pts, they puff out their chest and tell you I told you so. Huh? You told me 58, not 70. It is disingenuous and only serves to self promote, similar to the Trade deadline nonsense about "Sportsnet broke the story first", when in reality they got to air with it 45 seconds before TSN and 15 minutes after somebody reports it on a blog, messageboard or website.

I don't assume you are stupid, so I will not treat you as such. Fantasysense is not here to blow smoke up your ass and pretend to tell you the future. The purpose of this blog is to gather as much information as possible and provide you with common sense scenario's for a player's future production and potential. If you are looking for a different edge, this blog is step one.