Wednesday, November 5, 2008

NHL Notes

• Chris Higgins has been elevated to the Canadiens top line with Saku Koivu and Alex Tanguay. Big news for Higgins owners, bad news for those who own Guillaume Latendresse.

• Steve Bernier has been reunited with the Sedin twins on the Canucks top line. Mason Raymond finds himself between Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows.

• Claude Julien has declared Tim Thomas his definite number one starter. Great news for Thomas owners, poor news for Bruin fans.

• Marek Svatos gets an offensive boost as he now finds himself between Paul Stastny and Wojtek Wolski.

• Bryan McCabe returns from his Muskoka getaway and may be back in the lineup Thursday night for the Panthers.

• Gaborik to miss the remainder of the Wild's roadtrip. Shocking development for the brittle winger and founding member of the Marian Havorik All-Stars.

• The Rangers have finally come to their senses and given Scott Gomez some offensive talent to work with. Gomez will be lining up with Markus Naslund and Ryan Callahan. The line of Zherdev-Dubinsky-and the destined for the fantasy waiver wire and Hartford Wolfpack Aaron Voros

• Peter Mueller has been elevated to the Jokinen-Doan line. A great opportunity for the sophomore winger.

• Alexander Ovechkin was back at practice and will be paired with Backstrom and Kozlov. A nice boost for the struggling Backstrom

Brodeur Out 3-4 months

Martin Brodeur's injury was not so minor after all and will require surgery costing him 3-4 months of the 2009 NHL season.

This has huge fantasy implications. Those who invested an early pick in Brodeur are now faced with a major goaltending complications and an immediate trip to the waiver wire. Weekes will be the ultimate beneficiary. It will be interesting to see if the Devils were great defensively because of Brodeur, or if Weekes is capable of putting up big numbers behind the Devils defensive wall.

This comes as a huge shock as Brodeur has been one of the most durable fantasy players for the last 10 years and has not started less than 65 games since the mid 90s. His assault on the record book will have to be put on hold, and one wonders with his advanced age and all the miles on his body how long he can remain a major fantasy force.

Brodeurs greatness has been his consistency, in Fantasy circles he has been a virtual guarantee since his rookie year. 65+ starts per year, 37+ wins per season, +.910 Save Percentage and a low 2.00 Goals Against Average. His absence will be shocking to say the least, but cracks have begun to form in his super human durability in the last couple of playoffs, he has swooned in the playoffs after being overworked during the regular season. A small sign, but a definite red flag for future owners. (click chart to the left)

There are waiver wire options, but nobody close to the stature of Brodeur. My first instinct is to grab Weekes and hope for the best, as for those of you who have no faith in Kevin Weekes, I offer you Scott Clemmensen. This injury has really messed with both of their vacation times.

I can list you off a bunch of non fantasy starters who need injury or a major collapse to play. Guys like Ty Conklin (31% owned), Manny Fernandez (20% owned), Josh Harding (20%), Jaroslav Halak (12%).

But in a situation like this you need to get a little bit creative. So keep an eye on Dwayne Roloson, he is good trade bait because the Oilers are carrying three goaltenders because they do not want to lose Jeff-Drouin Deslauriers. Add the fact that Roloson will come off the cap after this season and he is a cheap alternative for the Devils to pursue. The same scenario exists for Khabibulin in Chicago, the Hawks did not give Huet big $$ to be a backup and Khabibulin is also off the cap after this season. With Brodeur going on the long term injury list the cap will not be a Devil problem.

If you want to target a backup who could steal a starting position, then I would look to one of Fredrik Norrena or Antero Niittymaki. A real darkhorse to look into for a second half impact would be Ondrej Pavelec.

All this said, as of today the best option remains Kevin Weekes. If he can slide in and excel in a strong defensive system then all the other points are moot. Anyways, with an unwinnable situation, those are your best options in my eyes.

One more thing about the impact of this injury. It offers the question of wether or not the Devils are forced to loosen the reigns on the trap. If so, does it increase the value of Parise, Elias, Gionta etc.

There are definitely going to be some interesting fantasy implications

Courtnall for Kordic - 20 years later

Remembering the Courtnall for Kordic deal. A deal that would have been vetoed instantly by any PIM free fantasy league.

I feel sorry for Stellick, he has been destroyed for that deal for 20 years. It is not like Russ Courtnall was a perennial All-Star. I mean he broke 30+ goals once in his career and he played the majority of his career in an era when 70+ goal scorers were not freaks.

The Gilmour deal by Risebrough, Luongo deal by Milbury, Bertuzzi deal by Milbury, Neely deal by Harry Neale, Roy deal by Houle and so on and so on were much more devestating to franchises then losing a one dimensional 20 goal scorer.

I think that the fact that it happened between the Habs and Leafs with Montreal once again getting the better of the deal is what gives this deal legs. That and the chaos that followed around Kordic. It was amazing to me that while with the Nordiques, they believed it was a good idea to make him and Bryan Fogarty roommates. They figured both guys could keep each other on the path to recovery. Kordic died at 27, Fogarty at 32. One need not wonder why the Nords finished in last place for 4-5 years after wisdom like that.

One thing is for sure, to get a Leaf fan going, the mention of this trade works wonders.

FIRE AND ICE - November 3/08

Wow, what a week for the Los Angeles Ducks of Anaheim.

The Hot list this week is filled with flaming Ducks.It was like watching NHL HITZ when a player gets hot and bursts into flames for 90 seconds, another week like this and we can put them in a bucket and pawn them off as fried chicken.

HOT

Ryan Getzlaf - ANA - 2G, 8A - 1o PTS
Getzlaf sparked the outburst with a 5 pt game and a couple of 2 pointers.

Corey Perry - ANA - 2G, 7A, 9 PTS
The former London Knight was not far behind with a 5 pt game as well, after just 1 point in his first 6 games Perry is working on a 7 game point streak.

Teemu Selanne - ANA - 6G, 3A, 9 PTS
Just when you think the Finnish Flash is done, he turns back the clock to 1993 and the images of him shooting his glove from out of the air during his rookie year return.

Simon Gagne - PHI - 3G, 5 A, 8 PTS
A huge week and a welcome return by Simon Gagne. I still can't shake the feeling that he is one headshot away from needing to remove his clothes to count to 11.

Chris Pronger - ANA - 2G, 4A, 6 PTS
A huge week from the backend by Pronger this week. I don't know if a backend has performed that well since the release of Buttman went to Africa.

Shane Doan - PHX - 2G, 4A, 6 PTS
A monster week for Doan as he put up the points in only 3 games. Another ex Jet doing Winnipeg proud. They need to hold on to something.

Michael Cammalleri - CGY - 2G, 3A, 5 PTS
Welcome back to the land of the living Mr. Cammalleri

Tim Thomas - BOS - 3 WINS, 0.99 GAA, .970 SV%
Kudos to Thomas, a man who continues to excel with very little talent. If I took some footage of him and decolourized and placed a fibreglass mask on him, you would think you were watching Mike Palmateer. Only problem, this is 2008.

Honourable mention: Carey Price, Miika Kiprusoff, Mike Knuble, Derrick Brassard

COLD
Ed Jovanovski - PHX - 0 PTS
Jovanovski has registered zero points on the season. Not what was expected after his bounceback season of 2008.

Marty Turco - DAL - o WINS, 5.04 GAA, .800 SV%
Jesus, could you suck anymore Marty? For his draft position, he must be up there on the biggest disppointments of 2009 so far. Dallas has to get better, right?

Jonathon Toews - CHI - 0G, 1A, 1PT, -1
A disappointing start for the Chicago captain, with his lacklustre start to the season he has already plummeted down my keeper list, temporarily I am sure.

Nik Backstrom - WAS - oG, 1A, 1PT, -1
Get well soon Grandpa Ovechkin

Keith Tkachuk - STL - oG, oA, -1
THUD! That my friends is the sound of another former Jet crashing back to 36 year old reality

Stephane Robidas - DAL - oG, oA, +1
I wonder if Robidas can hear Zubov's footsteps. Reality called and Robidas finally answered.

Aaron Voros - NYR - oG, oA, -1
Hey Aaron, if somebody calls your cell phone with a Hartford area code, don't answer the phone, it's probably the Wolfpack.

The Links - November 3, 2008

Looks like the Rick Nash experiment at center is over. RJ Umberger has been moved back up to the top line to remove any pressure from the club's leading scorer, rookie Derrick Brassard. The Columbus staff wants to remove Brassard from the pressure of opposition's top checking units. Brassard will remain with Voracek and Chimera, if the Jackets want to retain Rick Nash past next season, they need to put pretty boy with Nash soon.

Is Ilya Kovalchuk on the move? Rumblings are beginning in Atlanta that Ilya Kovalchuk is tired of playing for a piss poor franchise and wants out. I would love to say that it is unlikely that he is traded, but we are talking about Don Waddel here. The same guy who in the last two seasons has unloaded Braydon Coburn and Marian Hossa for Alexei Zhitnik, Colby Armstron, Erik Christensen and Angelo Esposito. One of the rumours is Toronto, a package of Grabovski, Ian White and Robbie Earl sounds just about right for Waddell.

I always love when a player flies out of the gates and people lose their minds in praise. We have Alexander Semin exploding out of the gate and taking shots at Sidney Crosby.
Now we have the inevitable is Semin better than Ovechkin argument. Does everybody forget WTF just happened 4 months ago? Since when does 10 games put you in the same class as somebody who has done it for three seasons, owns a Calder trophy and an MVP all at the age of 23? Can we get the guy who wrote this into my pool, trade him Ovechkin and allow me to trade Semin to him? Can we make this happen?

Perusing the stats this morning it occurs to me that three goalie's have started every game this season. Martin Brodeur, Miikka Kiprusoff and Jason Labarbera?? Finally somebody in LA has come to their senses and is giving Erik Ersberg a chance?

Alex Goligoski is the new Zarley Zalapski!! High praise indeed. If only he can match Zalapski's feat of playing for 15 professional teams in his career. Aim high Alex!!

Larry Brooks letting out some frustration in regards to the usage of Scott Gomez. He definitely has a point. Why pay a guy 6M+ per season and play him with Nigel Dawes and Ryan Callahan. Can you throw the guy a bone and line him up with Naslund and Zherdev?

Poor Henrik Zetterberg, Hossa and Datysuk seem to be soul mates and he seems to be spinning his wheel with his second choice.

Interesting tidbits from Eric Duhatschek. Mikko Koivu is breathing some rarified air. His start to the season has placed him in elite company including Gretzky, Oates, Jagr, Forsberg and the great Mario Lemieux. Also for those fantasy enthusiasts impressed with Tim Thomas' back to back 1-0 shutouts, it has only been done ONCE before in NHL history.....by future Hall of Famer Craig Anderson. Newsflash, Thomas still sucks.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Bargain hunting - Nov 1, 2008

It is funny when a teenager shops they look for the most expensive item in the shop to buy. After paying the 1000% markup on the sweatshop produced product they spend the next 2 months telling others how extremely expensive their purchase is. Some adults never grow out of this and continue to show off their Iphones, Porsches and $40 water bottle from Lululemon.

Most adults switch to the other extreme and go from bragging about the cost of products to bragging how cheap they picked up their latest bargain. Bragging about cheap acquisitions in fantasy goes hand in hand with the game.

In fantasy hockey it is imperative to pick bargains off the waiver wire if you want to win a championship. Maybe it takes an extra hour scouring the bargain racks at Winners to find the hidden gems, but once found, you have just acquired an asset as valuable as the $90 Lululemon pants at a fraction of the cost.

Let's go looking through the bargain racks, I will try to let you know wether to pass on, or take advantage of a bargain.

Mason Raymond - LW - Vancouver Canucks
Raymond is slightly undersized at 6'0" and 190 lbs but possesses lightning speed and great dangling abilities. He is dangerous on the powerplay and with up to 3 minutes of time and exposure with the struggling swedes could enjoy a breakout season. He lacks physical strength which could ultimately derail a breakout, but he is definitely worth a cheap pickup.

Andy Greene - D - New Jersey Devils
A disappointing 2008 has left Greene with very little hype entering this season. Although his PP time is not in line with Paul Martin's his offensive anticipation, skating and passing skills are offensive in nature and with 6 PT in his first 6 games is a solid bargain acquisition. Adding a 35-40 PT d-man in a deep league could be a huge acquisition at this point in the season.

Mike Knuble - RW - Philadelphia Flyers
Knuble is 36 years old, has never been one of the sexier fantasy picks but with the lack of elite level right wingers available is a must add bargain. He has exploded in his last 4 games for 5 goals and playing on the upper two lines on Philly with an abundance of power play time he could enjoy a solid season. At this price he is a definite bargain.

Milan Lucic - LW - Boston Bruins
Lucic was the darling of the first round of the playoffs last season and has exploded in the last week for 5 points in 4 games. In a keeper league he is a must add as his blend of toughness and scoring ability has Bruins fans envisioning the return of Cam Neely. High praise, but 75% of Neely would make this a monster bargain.

Mike Smith - G - Tampa Bay Lightning
Smith has capitalized on his first real starting opportunity in Tampa Bay. The wins are not there, but a 2.12 GAA and a .942 SV% have been an early season fantasy surprise. It was hard to get a read on Smith's real talent as he played in the offensive stifling Dallas Stars system, in a keeper league he is a definite bargain add and stash. For this season, I think the Lightning are destined to miss the playoffs, but with only Kolzig pushing him Smith will probably get a huge workload. Definite bargain.

Clarke MacArthur - LW - Buffalo Sabres
MacArthur has finally received his NHL opportunity and his personal performance has mimicked the fast start of the Sabres. He has strong offensive instincts, and may fight his way on to the upper two lines with continued production. His potential has been tabbed as a third liner but with the second line in reach in Buffalo may be worth an add.

Sergei Zubov - D - Dallas Stars
If somebody has not had the vision to add this guy and stash him, go get him right now. He is still an elite level offensive producer, as for all you Stephane Robidas owners.....well, it was fun while it lasted.

Mike Van Ryn - D - Toronto Maple Leafs
Van Ryn is very underrated and because of an injury prone 2008 has flown under many fantasy radars. With two 37 point campaigns under his belt already and the possibility of being used as Kaberle's triggerman, Van Ryn could become a very valuable 3rd-4th d-man and a strong bargain.

Alex Ponikoravsky - LW - Toronto Maple Leafs
A member of the giant twin underachievers in Toronto the past 4 seasons, Ponikoravsky has put up 7 points in his last 5 games and 18 points over his last 21 games dating back to last season. Ponikoravsky has never produced with the Big Swede beside him and has a tendency for streaky play, a tendency his twin Borat also shares. He is receiving big PP minutes, but even though the Leafs are underrated with little talent surrounding him and a team that has committed to defense, don't expect this production to continue. No bargain to be had here.

Tim Thomas - G - Boston Bruins
With back to back shutouts in the last week he has most likely been scooped up in most fantasy leagues, but Thomas overpursues, is inconsistent will not keep up this performance. With a possible tandem in the wings with Fernandez (and don't kid yourself, the Bruins are not going to staple 4.5M goalie to the bench) and super prospect Tuuka Rask on the farm he is a short term shot in the arm. As for his lofty perch in the rankings right now, highly doubtful he maintains it.

Aaron Voros - RW - NY Rangers
Everybody come to their senses yet?

Keeping Track of the Powerplay

Break through. Two of the most important words in fantasy sports. It is why millions of game players spend time pouring over stats, endlessly searching for the uncovered gem. The $100 hockey player that you can acquire for $5. The player that can make or break a championship season, the player that you can talk about for the next 10 seasons.

Well, one of the greatest indicators of increased responsibility is ice time. Specifically power play time. Look no further than Filip Kuba to find a benefactor of increased PP responsibility. While a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning Kuba averaged 3:37 min of PP time per game, in 2009 with the Senators Kuba has been a PP machine and has seen his PP minutes increase to 6:13. His production has been obscene so far, and I do not expect him to maintain this level, but if you want a possible reason why is output has doubled....just look at his power play minutes.

We all know the Crosby, Spezza's and Ovechkin's are going to get massive minutes, but here are some names that are getting a chance to improve their productivity.

Anaheim Ducks - Travis Moen (0:50) and Ryan Carter (0:58) are up almost a minute on their 2008 minutes. Moen has seen a susbtantial production boost because of it.

Atlanta Thrashers - Tobias Enstrom (3:19) seems to be a major victim with the arrival of Matt Schneider and Ron Hainsey. He has been replaced on the first unit and his minutes are down over 2 minutes. Todd White (4:52) is up 2 minutes on last season's total and Bryan Little (4:05) is up a minute as well. The Thrashers seem to be still auditioning a running mate for Kovalchuk as Jason Williams (3:27) has also surpassed the 3 minute mark.

Boston Bruins - Michael Ryder (3:37) is back to his normal PP minutes and Milan Lucic (1:49) is up 40+ seconds on his 2008 totals. Dennis Wideman (2:19) has had his minutes reduced well over a minute as the Bruins have been playing around with an extra forward on their unit.

Buffalo Sabres - In the arm pit of America Andrej Sekera (4:19) has seen an increase of 3+ minutes. Clarke MacArthur (2:56) is also up a minute and a half, with Nathan Paetsch (2:46) up a minute as well.

Calgary Flames - Mark Giordano (3:19) is getting a nice run on the Flames PP, as well as Adam Pardy (2:32). Dustin Boyd (1:24) is up marginally as well.

Carolina Hurricanes - For some reason a member of the Marian Havorik All-Stars, Tuomo Ruutu (4:58) is leading all Canes in PP ice time, up almost 2:30 from his 2008 totals. Why Sergei Samsonov (3:16) continues to get this type of PP run is beyond me. Dennis Seidenberg (3:08) is also working on a 30+ second increase.

Chicago Blackhawks - The biggest surprise in Chicago is the minutes rookie Kris Versteeg (2:57) is clocking. Dave Bolland (2:18) is also been rewarded with double his minutes. Troy Brouwer (2:09) is also getting a look as he is above the 2 minute mark.

Colorado Avalanche - Milan Hejduk (5:36) is up almost 2 minutes per game. Wojtek Wolski (1:30) and Brett Clark (1:18) have seen their minutes drop dramatically, with Clark seeing almost a two minute reduction. Sideshow Bob Darcy Tucker (2:04) is getting a good secondary run. I am pretty sure the Avs will not be happy with him taking 10 empty nets to score 2 goals.

Columbus Blue Jackets - Christian Backman (4:08) and Kriss Russell (3:53) seem to be the PP quarterbacks in Buckeye country, and people wonder why the Jackets have never made the playoffs. Jakub Voracek (2:34) and Derrick Brassard (2:51) are getting a nice rookie run, the same cannot be said for Nikita Filatov (0:05).

Dallas Stars - Stephane Robidas (5:30) has been the biggest beneficiary of Sergei Zubov's absence as he is up almost 3 minutes on his 2008 totals. Loui Erikkson (3:32) is also getting nice run, his PP time is up over 2 minutes. The wonderkid Fabian Brunnstrom (2:38) is also getting a nice secondary run.

Detroit Red Wings - The Wings are stacked and a player like Brad Stuart (0:09) is paying for it. He is used to 3+ minutes of PP time and is down to almost nothing in Motown. Dan Cleary (1:03) is down a minute and a half to just over a minute.

Edmonton Oilers - Dustin Penner (0:50) is down almost 3 minutes from his 2008 PP time due to the arrival of Erik Cole, Lubomir Visnovsky (4:29) has sucked up all the departed Pitkanen's minutes.

Florida Panthers - Cory Stillman (4:58) has stepped in and replaced Jokinen's minutes in Florida, Stephen Weiss (3:46) and Nathan Horton (4:45) and David Booth (3:04) have also benefitted from increased PP time in the Panthers youth movement. Cory Murphy (2:54) and Richard Zednik (2:21) have been the most affected by the deal as their minutes are substantially down.

Los Angeles Kings - Dustin Brown (4:50) and Jarret Stoll (4:39) have benefitted from the departure of Mike Cammalleri, they are up over a minute per game in PP minutes. Peter Harrold (4:12), Peter who? is getting a nice audition as he is up almost 4 minutes. Michael Handzus (3:37) and his hair are getting another chance to be an offensive contributor, up over 3 minutes per game. The Kings are also easing super prospects Jack Johnson (2:26) and Drew Doughty (4:06) into increased responsibility. How many Leaf fans would trade places with King fans right now?

Minnesota Wild - Mikko Koivu (4:42) has taken the ball and run with his extra minutes, as has Anti Miettenen (4:32). Benoit Pouliot (2:25), Tomas Mojzis (2:33) and Eric Belanger (2:59) have also been given a seconday look.

Montreal Canadiens - Sergei Kostitsyn (3:02) has been give a look as a Mark Streit replacement and other than a minor increase in Guillame Latendresse's (1:49) minutes, things remain mostly the same with the league's top unit.

Nashville Predators - Shea Weber (5:13) and Ryan Suter (4:53) have stepped into the void left by Marek Zidlicky. Ryan Jones (3:09) is also getting a nice look, usurping some of the minutes left behind by Alexander Radulov.

New Jersey Devils - Ansi Salmela (3:02) is averaging over 3 minutes per game, mind you it is only over a 3 game window. David Clarkson (1:43) and Mike Mottau (1:50) have also been given an opportunity, otherwise the same familiar faces on the Devils unit.

NY Islanders - Why is Kyle Okposo (1:02) averaging just over a minute per game? Is Doug Weight really going to be beneficial to this team beyond December? Why bother with this mess? Mark Streit (6:29), you ain't in Kansas anymore. No Markov or Kovalev to feed you the puck, good luck with that.

NY Rangers - Aaron Voros (2:13) is getting a chance to see what life is like outside the penalty box, remember, Tie Domi fancied himself a goal scorer one year. Whatever happened to Peter Prucha (0:41)?

Ottawa Senators - Filip Kuba (6:13) is receiving an obscene amount of ice time on the powerplay. Alexandre Picard (5:09) is also over 5 minutes and has been given an opportunity to make a fantasy impact. Nick Foligno (2:18) is also up over a minute and a half from his rookie season.

Philadelphia Flyers - Rookie Luca Sbisa (2:30) is getting every opportunity to make an impact as an 18 year old. With the lack of defensive depth in Philadelphia Steve Eminger (1:37) has been given a chance to untap the potential he had forecast for him as a junior.

Phoenix Coyotes - Michael Boedker (2:30) and Kyle Turris (2:27) have been given every opportunity to succeed as rookies. Kevin Porter (1:59) is also getting a look on the PP with close to two minutes per game.

Pittsburgh Penguins - Alex Goligoski (4:35) has received the bulk of the minutes on the PP due to the injuries to Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney. Kris Letang (2:38) has also been given an opportunity to fill the PP void. Jeff Taffe (2:29) and Tyler Kennedy (1:55) have also been given an opportunity to impact the powerful Penguins unit.

San Jose Sharks - Marc-Edouard Vlasic (3:41) is up almost 3 minutes over his 2008 totals replacing Rivet, Campbell, Ozolinsh and their minutes. Joe Pavelski (3:24) and Ryan Clowe's (3:24) power play minutes are also up over a minute.

St. Louis Blues - Lee Stempniak (4:33) is up over two minutes per game and rookies Alex Pietrangelo (2:45) and Patrick Berglund (2:02) have also been given a nice opportunity to make an offensive impact.

Tampa Bay Lightning - Paul Ranger (4:00) is up over two and a half minutes and seems to have inherited the keys to the powerplay from Dan Boyle. Off season acquisition Radim Vrbata (3:22) has also been given an opportunity to show that ownership's spending spree was not a waste. Matt Carle (2:47), Jamie Heward (2:31) and Janne Niskala (2:16) have also been rewarded an opportunity to replace the minutes from the departed Boyle.

Toronto Maple Leafs - The new look Leafs have plenty of benefactors of the departure of the majority of the Muskoka Five. Mike Van Ryn (3:14), Anton Stralman (3:00), Mikael Grabovski(3:08), Niklas Hagman (3:03) and Matt Stajan (3:03) are all receiving over three minutes per game.

Vancouver Canucks - Kyle Wellwood (3:36) the slacker with great offensive instincts is being given every opportunity to produce on the west coast. Jason Krog (3:25) and Steve Bernier (3:17) have also been given the chance to replace the departing Naslund and Morrison.

Washington Capitals - Brooks Laich (3:02), Tomas Fleischman (2:45) and Christopher Bourque (2:59) are getting increased minutes and a secondary opportunity to break through in 2009