Fantasy Sense Articles

Leaf Nation ignoring their stars?

2008-11-14T17:00:00.001-08:00

During the first two months of a fantasy season any player that shows any signs of being productive is generally snapped off the waiver wire.

Players like Aaron Voros, Louie Erikkson and Trent Hunter are generally snapped up and sent packing within a couple of weeks.

Which is why I am surprised at the lack of love for God's team, the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Outside of Vesa Toskala and maybe Nik Antropov, Leaf players have been left to sit on the waiver wire with big numbers.

Did Ron Wilson and Cliff Fletcher really sell Leaf Nation on them being that bad?

Since when did Leaf Nation become so cynical and realistic? In days gone by any Leaf fan with a pulse would be snapped up instantly off the waiver wire, yet here we are 16 games into the "lost season" and there are Matt Stajan, Mikael Grabovski and Alexei Ponikoravsky sitting on the waiver wire without a home.

Stajan (10% owned) is on an 82 point pace. Grabovski (13% owned) the rookie and Alexei Ponikoravsky (16% owned) are on pace for 60 points yet not a sniff? What is going on?

When you actually study things closely though it should not be a surprise. When Leaf Nation is spoonfed delusions of grandeur by the local media they usually buy it. I have to hand it to MLSE, spoonfeeding misery was a masterful stroke and seems to have worked to dampen the stench of marijuana that usually envelops the Air Canada Center.

Ron Wilson is a defensive minded coach and sooner or later Vesa Toskala is going to show up for the season. I would be shocked if any of the three broke the 60 point barrier this season, but hey, you never know. Gary Leeman once got so motivated for a season he scored 50 goals.

THAT IS PROOF that projections are worth shit.

Tim Connoly - Marian Havorik All-Star

2008-11-14T16:59:00.001-08:00

Tim Connolly is quickly becoming the Vince Carter of the NHL.

Connolly was the center piece of the Mike Peca trade with the Islanders. He started off his career fairly slowly but seemed to have made the fantasy leap in 2006. After scoring the game winner against the Sens in Game One, Connolly was about to make his descent to Marian Havorik All-Star. In Game Two he kept his head down and was lit up by Peter Schaefer of the Senators. Connolly has played 55 games since.

Where he becomes a fantasy pariah is his 47 points in those 55 games.

Year after year desperate owners grab him in hopes of unearthing an injured gem, making them smarter than the owner who tried it they year before, and the owner who learned the year before that owner, etc etc.

Once again comes word that Connolly has left a game with an upper body injury suffered from a hit by Keith Tkachuk. Congratulations Mr. Connolly on your nomination, you have earned it. You now join fellow members Martin Havlat, Marian Gaborik and Kari Lehtonen.

David Perron - A real Keeper

2008-11-14T16:57:00.002-08:00

In an earlier blog I mentioned how jumping on David Perron one pick to early cost me Jakub Voracek.

It was surprising to me because I did not feel I over estimated his value. The problem was I over estimated his value to others owners.

I picked up Perron on my radar as a 19 year old who entered camp and dazzled the Blues upper management and earned a roster spot. He exploded out of the gate with 8 points in his first 10 games and forced the Blues to keep him in the NHL for the duration of the season. Perron found himself in Andy Murray's doghouse because of a lack of defensive commitment and never regained his early season form.

I had stashed Perron on the Peter Northstars Minor League affiliate the Lexington Steele and was disappointed when he reached the maximum amount of games to leave him minor league eligible. I could not keep him after the season and hoped that I could reacquire him in 2009.

A monster pre-season where Perron had 8 points (6G, 2A) in 7 games including a 3 goal, 1 assist outburst against the Thrashers convinced me that the fantasy clueless would take notice and my sleeper would be snatched, forcing me to take him one pick to early.

Then due to Martin St. Louis' brutal start, lacking a right winger and ridiculous depth at LW, with the knowledge that he would be scooped up immediately I had to drop Perron. But a strange thing happened, nobody touched him. 7 pts in 10 games, 8 pts in 12 games still no bites. Then while watching the Sabres game I notice Perron all over the ice on his way to 1 goal and 2 assists. Back to the waiver wire I went and scooped him back up.

It is amazing that in a fantasy keeper league with everybody constantly searching to unearth offensive talent that a kid with this much offensive flair was ignored. Twenty years old and 11 points in 13 games and he is treated like a fantasy leper.

Perron is creative, has great hands and is a magician with the puck. He has a heavy, quick release and due to strength issues is a work in progress. But the kid will score at the NHL level and has PPG potential.

How much longer will he fly under the fantasy radar? Don't make the same mistakes that the owners in my league did, if he is available in your keeper league the kid is a must stash. Be patient and enjoy, Kariya is getting old and Perron is the perfect replacement. Patrick Berglund, David Perron and Brad Boyes will be causing fantasy havoc in St. Louis for years to come.

Is Brian Burke on his way to Toronto?

2008-11-14T16:57:00.001-08:00

Brian Burke has left his GM post and is now working as a consultant for the Ducks, most likely paving his way for a move to Toronto. Recently Brian Burke was rated the number 1 General Manager in the Hockey News annual rankings. He also tops the wish list of most Leaf fans as as the media anointed saviour of God’s team.

But is he really the best GM for the Maple Leafs?

I guess it depends on what tonic you are searching for to cure your ails. If you want to rip down the foundation and rebuild from scratch then Burke is the wrong guy for the job. His work history is littered with mediocre drafts and slightly above average trades. He is credited with the rebuild of the Canucks into contenders and with the turnaround of the Mighty Ducks.

I tend to disagree and feel the heavy lifting was completed before his arrival in either city.

The Hartford Whaler era cannot be analyzed properly as he was only afforded a year as the GM before being fired. His first and only draft for the Whalers yielded the following players:

Robert Petrovicky , Andrei Nikolishin , Litvinov Chemopetrol, Ken Belanger, Konstantin Korotkov, Greg Zwakman, Steve Halko and Joakim Esbjors

Hardly an impressive crop of NHL caliber players, but seeing as he was a rookie and was not really afforded a real opportunity his results are really inconclusive. If anything the poor performance on the ice allowed the Whalers to manoeuvre into a position to draft Chris Pronger.

Burke has been widely credited with turning around the Vancouver Canucks from doormat into Stanley Cup contender. I believe that Pat Quinn and MIke Keenan’s contribution’s were just as important in the ascendence of the Canucks in the early 2000s.

When Burke arrived in Vancouver he had a core of Markus Naslund, Todd Bertuzzi, Pavel Bure, Alexander Mogilny, Adrian Aucoin, Brett Hedican, Matthias Ohlund, and Garth Snow. Along with Quinn draft picks Brett Hedican, Peter Schaefer and Brent Sopel.

Burke allowed Messier to become a Free Agent, traded Pavel Bure for Ed Jovanovski and Alexander Mogilny for Brendan Morrison. Both trades worked well for the Canucks as Bure coming off 58 and 59 goal seasons hurt his knee in Florida and could never recapture the explosiveness that made him the best goal scorer in the league. Mogilny was just beginning the descent and he acquired the center piece for what would become the league’s most dangerous line.

He also reacquired Trevor Linden as a Free Agent, traded for Felix Potvin, traded Adrian Aucoin for Dan Cloutier and Sami Salo for Peter Schaefer.

Although his draft results netted him the Sedin Twins his 6 drafts (1998-2003) in Vancouver yielded very little NHL talent

http://hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/teams/dr000039.html

The Canucks under Brian Burke had a combined record of 209-181-68-24 and made the playoffs 4 of 6 seasons winning 1 round in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Burke benefited greatly from a youthful nucleus provided by Quinn and tradeable assets in Mogilny and Bure. Although he had strong regular season success he never addressed the secondary scoring problems and the Canucks were hampered by average goaltending. Burke left the Canucks with very little in their farm system and an aging fading core of Bertuzzi, Naslund, Jovanovski and Cloutier.

Burke the smart man he is leaped to a situation with great possibilities created by his successor Bryan Murray. The Ducks had lots of cap space and had restocked their minor league system with elite level prospects Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf , Dustin Penner and Joffrey Lupul. He inherited a franchise goalie in JS Giguere and an elite backup in Ilya Bryzgalov.

Burke made a shrewd move of dumping Sergei Federov’s salary and acquiring Francois Beauchemin. With a strong young core and tons of cap space he signed the crown jewel of the Stanley Cup champion New Jersey Devils, Scott Niedermayer. Burke then came within a hair of landing Sydney Crosby and settled for Bobby Ryan passing on Jack Johnson, Carey Price, Anze Kopitar, Marc Staal, Tuuka Rask and Andrew Cogliano.

He then used a combination of the youth he inherited and his ample cap space to acquire Chris Pronger from the Ducks for Lupul, two first rounders and a 2nd round pick.

Although his draft record cannot be acurately judged after only 3 seasons, their system is not overflowing with elite young talent anymore.

http://ducks.nhl.com/team/app/?service=page&page=NHLPage&id=17374

Burke helped to change the face of the Ducks in 2 seasons and did a strong job in doing so. But he bailed on a franchise that was ailing from the Bertuzzi fiasco and jumped in bed with a franchise in great position for the future.

Which brings me to what the Maple Leafs need. If the Leafs want a GM who is going to come in and rebuild the franchise from the ground up like the Canadiens and Penguins have, then Brian Burke is not the man for the job.

His draft record is poor and he will be entering a situation which lacks the cap space and emerging superstar talent (Bertuzzi, Naslund, Getzlaf, Perry) to make an immediate impact. He lacks the quality assets to flip for quality players like Brendan Morrison and Ed Jovanovski.

Even if he is able pull a rabbit out of the hat, and steal an elite player? Where is the glut of $800,000 forwards and defencemen to push this franchise forward?

He may be able to provide a quick turnaround, but is that going to cure what ails the crown jewel of MLSE? Will a couple of playoff appearances change the long term future of the franchise? Will Free Agent band aids mark any substantial changes from the Pat Quinn/JFJ era’s?

Unfortuantely I think that Burke is the headline splashing move that MLSE is looking for. Personally as a Canadiens fan Ken Holland, Doug Armstrong and Dave Nonis would worry me a lot more than Brian Burke.

But I am sure Leaf Nation will eat this up and believe that Burke can create a miracle and bring them back to contender status within a couple of years. The Leafs need to go back to square one and set their sights on John Tavares and rebuilding a depleted farm system, not concern themselves with PR moves.

So for somebody who revels in the Leafs mistakes I welcome the hiring of Brian Burke. Nobody likes to hear themselves speak more than Mr. Burke and with all of the media coverage that is aimed at the Leafs his ego will get it’s much needed spotlight.

Over to you Dick Peddie. I am looking forward to the Press Conference where you and Brian Burke continually pat yourselves on the back.

At least you have nice hair Theo

2008-11-06T14:01:00.001-08:00

How sad is it that the 2002 NHL MVP is now more famous for shagging Wonky eye behind his wife's back, his father being arrested and using Propecia to stop from balding.

Being a Canadiens fan, I can attest to how unbelievable he was during the 2002 Season/Playoffs. Dominant was not the word. Even though it was a longshot at best, he convinced me that a roster with a first line of Doug Gilmour, Richard Zednik and Oleg Petrov could win the Cup if he continued to stand on his head.

In the first round of the 2002 playoffs vs the top seeded Bruins, Theodore and the Canadiens were outshot 211-141 (79-31 in Game 5 and 6) yet won the series in 6 games. In the second round of the playoffs against the Hurricanes, Theodore had the Canadiens on the brink of a 3-1 lead against the Canes while being outshot 158-70 in the first 4 games. The walls finally came tumbling in after blowing a 3-0 third period lead in Game 4, but his season ended when he was yanked during an 8-2 loss against the Hurricanes in Montreal to a standing ovation.

The guy had it all. At 26 he was the reigning MVP and the starting goaltender on the Montreal Canadiens, (which is akin to being a rockstar in that city), he had good looks and was armed with a $5M contract. Fans were beginning to forget the name Patrick Roy and Jose Theodore decides it is a better idea to hang out with Mike Ribeiro and Pierre Dagenais and chase tail, then work on the skills that brought him to the apex of his sport.

Upon being traded to Colorado he proclaimed that the Canadiens were wrong and he would recapture his form. Well he quickly rounded in to Don Swayze form and found himself playing backup to Peter Budaj!! The Avs contemplated buying him out, but decided to stick with him during his contract run. Theodore than puts together another great season sucking the Caps into ditching Cristobal Huet in the process.

The Caps deserve that albatross and it amuses me that GMs can be so stupid as to reward a guy who has chronically underachieved outside of his contract years for the past 6 years. Good for you Theo, I guess Paris Hilton taught you that you don't need to show any talent to actually make big money today.

Losing your starting job 5 weeks into the season to Brent Johnson? (and Boudreau will not come out and say it, but when you pay a guy $4M+ and are going to his backup in the first week of November, you are not happy with his play) Bravo, even I who would not have touched you in a fantasy draft with a ten foot pole is impressed with your new found ineptitude. For all you Theodore owners out there, he played you for a sucker, good luck with that and say hi to your mother for me.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/capitalsinsider/

This morning's practice was canceled, but Coach Bruce Boudreau talked to the beat writers on the phone a few minutes ago. The topic du jour - you guessed it - was the goalie situation.

There is no controversy, according to Boudreau. But Johnson will make his second straight start tomorrow night against Carolina at Verizon Center.

"I don't think [either is] going to play 10 games in a row," Boudreau said. "But we're going to go with the hot hand."

And right now, the hot hand belongs to Johnson, who stopped 42 shots in the Caps' 2-1 overtime loss to the Senators. Johnson is 1-1-2 with a 2.47 goals against average and a .914 save percentage. Jose Theodore, meantime, has a 3.44 goals against and a .877 save percentage.

"We haven't given up on Theo or anything, or think anything less of him," Boudreau added. "Right now, Brent played really well last night, so I've got to believe he's earned another start tomorrow night."

Boudreau said after last night's game that goaltending coach Dave Prior told him that Johnson's performance at Scotiabank Place was his best as a Capital.

"He's not old by goaltending standards," Boudreau said of Johnson, 31. "So I've got to believe that he's going to get better. He's better than when he was 25 and he's better than when he was 29. I don't know if he would have been able to poke check Daniel Alfredsson on a breakaway five years ago."

Boudreau is clearly pleased with Johnson's play this season (he was also very good in the preseason). But the coach also wasn't willing to say that there's been a change in the hierarchy. Theodore is still the Caps' No. 1, Boudreau said.

"Who knows, if Brent goes in and is crappy tomorrow obviously we're going to go with Theodore against the Rangers on Saturday," Boudreau said. "All I'm looking at is tomorrow night's game."

He added: "Theodore is still the No. 1 goalie we have. But for tomorrow, Brent is getting another start. Theodore started five games in a row. Brent came in a did well, so he's earned another start."

Did the Wellwood gamble pay off?

2008-11-05T11:52:00.001-08:00

It's funny how being released and then sent to the minors for being out of shape can light a fire under one's ass.

Last night Kyle Wellwood put up another 2 goals giving him 6 on the season and 7 point in 8 games in 2008.

Wellwood's offensive skills have never been in doubt. It has always been motivation and his commitment to conditioning that has kept him from reaching his potential.

At this point in the year with waiver wire's thinning out, a guy like Wellwood can hold a lot of value. Playing on a Canucks team with little offensive depth will provide ample opportunities for the dimunitive center. He also has a previous history of being productive in the NHL as witnessed during his 42 points in 48 games in Toronto during the 2007 season. One wonders how badly he alienated himself from the Maple Leafs for them to just dump him and his offensive gifts.

Wellwood has been given a second life, and by sending him down to the minors the Canucks have already sent a strong message about their expectations. With the collection of skills he possesses he is a solid add if you have some dead weight lying on your bench. He is very capable of putting up 60-75 points with the ice time he will receive on the West Coast.

Other stars last night

• Erik Ersberg was strong in his first start of the season, giving up just one goal. Unfortunately it was an OT winner in a 1-0 defeat.

• Mikael Grabovski had 2 goals and an assist leaving him with 5 points in his last 2 games. Grabovski has the skill to succeed in the NHL, does he have the toughness?

• Welcome back Roberto Luongo. Luongo stopped 24 saves to register his 3rd shutout of the season. That would be impressive if those 3 shutouts were not sandwhiched around 9 other shitty games.

NHL Notes

2008-11-05T11:51:00.003-08:00

• Chris Higgins has been elevated to the Canadiens top line with Saku Koivu and Alex Tanguay. Big news for Higgins owners, bad news for those who own Guillaume Latendresse.

• Steve Bernier has been reunited with the Sedin twins on the Canucks top line. Mason Raymond finds himself between Ryan Kesler and Alex Burrows.

• Claude Julien has declared Tim Thomas his definite number one starter. Great news for Thomas owners, poor news for Bruin fans.

• Marek Svatos gets an offensive boost as he now finds himself between Paul Stastny and Wojtek Wolski.

• Bryan McCabe returns from his Muskoka getaway and may be back in the lineup Thursday night for the Panthers.

• Gaborik to miss the remainder of the Wild's roadtrip. Shocking development for the brittle winger and founding member of the Marian Havorik All-Stars.

• The Rangers have finally come to their senses and given Scott Gomez some offensive talent to work with. Gomez will be lining up with Markus Naslund and Ryan Callahan. The line of Zherdev-Dubinsky-and the destined for the fantasy waiver wire and Hartford Wolfpack Aaron Voros

• Peter Mueller has been elevated to the Jokinen-Doan line. A great opportunity for the sophomore winger.

• Alexander Ovechkin was back at practice and will be paired with Backstrom and Kozlov. A nice boost for the struggling Backstrom

Brodeur Out 3-4 months

2008-11-05T11:51:00.001-08:00

Martin Brodeur's injury was not so minor after all and will require surgery costing him 3-4 months of the 2009 NHL season.

This has huge fantasy implications. Those who invested an early pick in Brodeur are now faced with a major goaltending complications and an immediate trip to the waiver wire. Weekes will be the ultimate beneficiary. It will be interesting to see if the Devils were great defensively because of Brodeur, or if Weekes is capable of putting up big numbers behind the Devils defensive wall.

This comes as a huge shock as Brodeur has been one of the most durable fantasy players for the last 10 years and has not started less than 65 games since the mid 90s. His assault on the record book will have to be put on hold, and one wonders with his advanced age and all the miles on his body how long he can remain a major fantasy force.

Brodeurs greatness has been his consistency, in Fantasy circles he has been a virtual guarantee since his rookie year. 65+ starts per year, 37+ wins per season, +.910 Save Percentage and a low 2.00 Goals Against Average. His absence will be shocking to say the least, but cracks have begun to form in his super human durability in the last couple of playoffs, he has swooned in the playoffs after being overworked during the regular season. A small sign, but a definite red flag for future owners. (click chart to the left)

There are waiver wire options, but nobody close to the stature of Brodeur. My first instinct is to grab Weekes and hope for the best, as for those of you who have no faith in Kevin Weekes, I offer you Scott Clemmensen. This injury has really messed with both of their vacation times.

I can list you off a bunch of non fantasy starters who need injury or a major collapse to play. Guys like Ty Conklin (31% owned), Manny Fernandez (20% owned), Josh Harding (20%), Jaroslav Halak (12%).

But in a situation like this you need to get a little bit creative. So keep an eye on Dwayne Roloson, he is good trade bait because the Oilers are carrying three goaltenders because they do not want to lose Jeff-Drouin Deslauriers. Add the fact that Roloson will come off the cap after this season and he is a cheap alternative for the Devils to pursue. The same scenario exists for Khabibulin in Chicago, the Hawks did not give Huet big $$ to be a backup and Khabibulin is also off the cap after this season. With Brodeur going on the long term injury list the cap will not be a Devil problem.

If you want to target a backup who could steal a starting position, then I would look to one of Fredrik Norrena or Antero Niittymaki. A real darkhorse to look into for a second half impact would be Ondrej Pavelec.

All this said, as of today the best option remains Kevin Weekes. If he can slide in and excel in a strong defensive system then all the other points are moot. Anyways, with an unwinnable situation, those are your best options in my eyes.

One more thing about the impact of this injury. It offers the question of wether or not the Devils are forced to loosen the reigns on the trap. If so, does it increase the value of Parise, Elias, Gionta etc.

There are definitely going to be some interesting fantasy implications

Courtnall for Kordic - 20 years later

2008-11-05T11:50:00.000-08:00

Remembering the Courtnall for Kordic deal. A deal that would have been vetoed instantly by any PIM free fantasy league.

I feel sorry for Stellick, he has been destroyed for that deal for 20 years. It is not like Russ Courtnall was a perennial All-Star. I mean he broke 30+ goals once in his career and he played the majority of his career in an era when 70+ goal scorers were not freaks.

The Gilmour deal by Risebrough, Luongo deal by Milbury, Bertuzzi deal by Milbury, Neely deal by Harry Neale, Roy deal by Houle and so on and so on were much more devestating to franchises then losing a one dimensional 20 goal scorer.

I think that the fact that it happened between the Habs and Leafs with Montreal once again getting the better of the deal is what gives this deal legs. That and the chaos that followed around Kordic. It was amazing to me that while with the Nordiques, they believed it was a good idea to make him and Bryan Fogarty roommates. They figured both guys could keep each other on the path to recovery. Kordic died at 27, Fogarty at 32. One need not wonder why the Nords finished in last place for 4-5 years after wisdom like that.

One thing is for sure, to get a Leaf fan going, the mention of this trade works wonders.

FIRE AND ICE - November 3/08

2008-11-05T11:49:00.002-08:00

Wow, what a week for the Los Angeles Ducks of Anaheim.

The Hot list this week is filled with flaming Ducks.It was like watching NHL HITZ when a player gets hot and bursts into flames for 90 seconds, another week like this and we can put them in a bucket and pawn them off as fried chicken.

HOT

Ryan Getzlaf - ANA - 2G, 8A - 1o PTS

Getzlaf sparked the outburst with a 5 pt game and a couple of 2 pointers.

Corey Perry - ANA - 2G, 7A, 9 PTS

The former London Knight was not far behind with a 5 pt game as well, after just 1 point in his first 6 games Perry is working on a 7 game point streak.

Teemu Selanne - ANA - 6G, 3A, 9 PTS

Just when you think the Finnish Flash is done, he turns back the clock to 1993 and the images of him shooting his glove from out of the air during his rookie year return.

Simon Gagne - PHI - 3G, 5 A, 8 PTS

A huge week and a welcome return by Simon Gagne. I still can't shake the feeling that he is one headshot away from needing to remove his clothes to count to 11.

Chris Pronger - ANA - 2G, 4A, 6 PTS

A huge week from the backend by Pronger this week. I don't know if a backend has performed that well since the release of Buttman went to Africa.

Shane Doan - PHX - 2G, 4A, 6 PTS

A monster week for Doan as he put up the points in only 3 games. Another ex Jet doing Winnipeg proud. They need to hold on to something.

Michael Cammalleri - CGY - 2G, 3A, 5 PTS

Welcome back to the land of the living Mr. Cammalleri

Tim Thomas - BOS - 3 WINS, 0.99 GAA, .970 SV%

Kudos to Thomas, a man who continues to excel with very little talent. If I took some footage of him and decolourized and placed a fibreglass mask on him, you would think you were watching Mike Palmateer. Only problem, this is 2008.

Honourable mention: Carey Price, Miika Kiprusoff, Mike Knuble, Derrick Brassard

COLD

Ed Jovanovski - PHX - 0 PTS

Jovanovski has registered zero points on the season. Not what was expected after his bounceback season of 2008.

Marty Turco - DAL - o WINS, 5.04 GAA, .800 SV%

Jesus, could you suck anymore Marty? For his draft position, he must be up there on the biggest disppointments of 2009 so far. Dallas has to get better, right?

Jonathon Toews - CHI - 0G, 1A, 1PT, -1

A disappointing start for the Chicago captain, with his lacklustre start to the season he has already plummeted down my keeper list, temporarily I am sure.

Nik Backstrom - WAS - oG, 1A, 1PT, -1

Get well soon Grandpa Ovechkin

Keith Tkachuk - STL - oG, oA, -1

THUD! That my friends is the sound of another former Jet crashing back to 36 year old reality

Stephane Robidas - DAL - oG, oA, +1

I wonder if Robidas can hear Zubov's footsteps. Reality called and Robidas finally answered.

Aaron Voros - NYR - oG, oA, -1

Hey Aaron, if somebody calls your cell phone with a Hartford area code, don't answer the phone, it's probably the Wolfpack.

The Links - November 3, 2008

2008-11-05T11:49:00.001-08:00

Looks like the Rick Nash experiment at center is over. RJ Umberger has been moved back up to the top line to remove any pressure from the club's leading scorer, rookie Derrick Brassard. The Columbus staff wants to remove Brassard from the pressure of opposition's top checking units. Brassard will remain with Voracek and Chimera, if the Jackets want to retain Rick Nash past next season, they need to put pretty boy with Nash soon.

Is Ilya Kovalchuk on the move? Rumblings are beginning in Atlanta that Ilya Kovalchuk is tired of playing for a piss poor franchise and wants out. I would love to say that it is unlikely that he is traded, but we are talking about Don Waddel here. The same guy who in the last two seasons has unloaded Braydon Coburn and Marian Hossa for Alexei Zhitnik, Colby Armstron, Erik Christensen and Angelo Esposito. One of the rumours is Toronto, a package of Grabovski, Ian White and Robbie Earl sounds just about right for Waddell.

I always love when a player flies out of the gates and people lose their minds in praise. We have Alexander Semin exploding out of the gate and taking shots at Sidney Crosby.

Now we have the inevitable is Semin better than Ovechkin argument. Does everybody forget WTF just happened 4 months ago? Since when does 10 games put you in the same class as somebody who has done it for three seasons, owns a Calder trophy and an MVP all at the age of 23? Can we get the guy who wrote this into my pool, trade him Ovechkin and allow me to trade Semin to him? Can we make this happen?

Perusing the stats this morning it occurs to me that three goalie's have started every game this season. Martin Brodeur, Miikka Kiprusoff and Jason Labarbera?? Finally somebody in LA has come to their senses and is giving Erik Ersberg a chance?

Alex Goligoski is the new Zarley Zalapski!! High praise indeed. If only he can match Zalapski's feat of playing for 15 professional teams in his career. Aim high Alex!!

Larry Brooks letting out some frustration in regards to the usage of Scott Gomez. He definitely has a point. Why pay a guy 6M+ per season and play him with Nigel Dawes and Ryan Callahan. Can you throw the guy a bone and line him up with Naslund and Zherdev?

Poor Henrik Zetterberg, Hossa and Datysuk seem to be soul mates and he seems to be spinning his wheel with his second choice.

Interesting tidbits from Eric Duhatschek. Mikko Koivu is breathing some rarified air. His start to the season has placed him in elite company including Gretzky, Oates, Jagr, Forsberg and the great Mario Lemieux. Also for those fantasy enthusiasts impressed with Tim Thomas' back to back 1-0 shutouts, it has only been done ONCE before in NHL history.....by future Hall of Famer Craig Anderson. Newsflash, Thomas still sucks.

Bargain hunting - Nov 1, 2008

2008-11-01T10:01:00.001-07:00

It is funny when a teenager shops they look for the most expensive item in the shop to buy. After paying the 1000% markup on the sweatshop produced product they spend the next 2 months telling others how extremely expensive their purchase is. Some adults never grow out of this and continue to show off their Iphones, Porsches and $40 water bottle from Lululemon.

Most adults switch to the other extreme and go from bragging about the cost of products to bragging how cheap they picked up their latest bargain. Bragging about cheap acquisitions in fantasy goes hand in hand with the game.

In fantasy hockey it is imperative to pick bargains off the waiver wire if you want to win a championship. Maybe it takes an extra hour scouring the bargain racks at Winners to find the hidden gems, but once found, you have just acquired an asset as valuable as the $90 Lululemon pants at a fraction of the cost.

Let's go looking through the bargain racks, I will try to let you know wether to pass on, or take advantage of a bargain.

Mason Raymond - LW - Vancouver Canucks

Raymond is slightly undersized at 6'0" and 190 lbs but possesses lightning speed and great dangling abilities. He is dangerous on the powerplay and with up to 3 minutes of time and exposure with the struggling swedes could enjoy a breakout season. He lacks physical strength which could ultimately derail a breakout, but he is definitely worth a cheap pickup.

Andy Greene - D - New Jersey Devils

A disappointing 2008 has left Greene with very little hype entering this season. Although his PP time is not in line with Paul Martin's his offensive anticipation, skating and passing skills are offensive in nature and with 6 PT in his first 6 games is a solid bargain acquisition. Adding a 35-40 PT d-man in a deep league could be a huge acquisition at this point in the season.

Mike Knuble - RW - Philadelphia Flyers

Knuble is 36 years old, has never been one of the sexier fantasy picks but with the lack of elite level right wingers available is a must add bargain. He has exploded in his last 4 games for 5 goals and playing on the upper two lines on Philly with an abundance of power play time he could enjoy a solid season. At this price he is a definite bargain.

Milan Lucic - LW - Boston Bruins

Lucic was the darling of the first round of the playoffs last season and has exploded in the last week for 5 points in 4 games. In a keeper league he is a must add as his blend of toughness and scoring ability has Bruins fans envisioning the return of Cam Neely. High praise, but 75% of Neely would make this a monster bargain.

Mike Smith - G - Tampa Bay Lightning

Smith has capitalized on his first real starting opportunity in Tampa Bay. The wins are not there, but a 2.12 GAA and a .942 SV% have been an early season fantasy surprise. It was hard to get a read on Smith's real talent as he played in the offensive stifling Dallas Stars system, in a keeper league he is a definite bargain add and stash. For this season, I think the Lightning are destined to miss the playoffs, but with only Kolzig pushing him Smith will probably get a huge workload. Definite bargain.

Clarke MacArthur - LW - Buffalo Sabres

MacArthur has finally received his NHL opportunity and his personal performance has mimicked the fast start of the Sabres. He has strong offensive instincts, and may fight his way on to the upper two lines with continued production. His potential has been tabbed as a third liner but with the second line in reach in Buffalo may be worth an add.

Sergei Zubov - D - Dallas Stars

If somebody has not had the vision to add this guy and stash him, go get him right now. He is still an elite level offensive producer, as for all you Stephane Robidas owners.....well, it was fun while it lasted.

Mike Van Ryn - D - Toronto Maple Leafs

Van Ryn is very underrated and because of an injury prone 2008 has flown under many fantasy radars. With two 37 point campaigns under his belt already and the possibility of being used as Kaberle's triggerman, Van Ryn could become a very valuable 3rd-4th d-man and a strong bargain.

Alex Ponikoravsky - LW - Toronto Maple Leafs

A member of the giant twin underachievers in Toronto the past 4 seasons, Ponikoravsky has put up 7 points in his last 5 games and 18 points over his last 21 games dating back to last season. Ponikoravsky has never produced with the Big Swede beside him and has a tendency for streaky play, a tendency his twin Borat also shares. He is receiving big PP minutes, but even though the Leafs are underrated with little talent surrounding him and a team that has committed to defense, don't expect this production to continue. No bargain to be had here.

Tim Thomas - G - Boston Bruins

With back to back shutouts in the last week he has most likely been scooped up in most fantasy leagues, but Thomas overpursues, is inconsistent will not keep up this performance. With a possible tandem in the wings with Fernandez (and don't kid yourself, the Bruins are not going to staple 4.5M goalie to the bench) and super prospect Tuuka Rask on the farm he is a short term shot in the arm. As for his lofty perch in the rankings right now, highly doubtful he maintains it.

Aaron Voros - RW - NY Rangers

Everybody come to their senses yet?

Keeping Track of the Powerplay

2008-11-01T10:00:00.000-07:00

Break through. Two of the most important words in fantasy sports. It is why millions of game players spend time pouring over stats, endlessly searching for the uncovered gem. The $100 hockey player that you can acquire for $5. The player that can make or break a championship season, the player that you can talk about for the next 10 seasons.

Well, one of the greatest indicators of increased responsibility is ice time. Specifically power play time. Look no further than Filip Kuba to find a benefactor of increased PP responsibility. While a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning Kuba averaged 3:37 min of PP time per game, in 2009 with the Senators Kuba has been a PP machine and has seen his PP minutes increase to 6:13. His production has been obscene so far, and I do not expect him to maintain this level, but if you want a possible reason why is output has doubled....just look at his power play minutes.

We all know the Crosby, Spezza's and Ovechkin's are going to get massive minutes, but here are some names that are getting a chance to improve their productivity.

Anaheim Ducks - Travis Moen (0:50) and Ryan Carter (0:58) are up almost a minute on their 2008 minutes. Moen has seen a susbtantial production boost because of it.

Atlanta Thrashers - Tobias Enstrom (3:19) seems to be a major victim with the arrival of Matt Schneider and Ron Hainsey. He has been replaced on the first unit and his minutes are down over 2 minutes. Todd White (4:52) is up 2 minutes on last season's total and Bryan Little (4:05) is up a minute as well. The Thrashers seem to be still auditioning a running mate for Kovalchuk as Jason Williams (3:27) has also surpassed the 3 minute mark.

Boston Bruins - Michael Ryder (3:37) is back to his normal PP minutes and Milan Lucic (1:49) is up 40+ seconds on his 2008 totals. Dennis Wideman (2:19) has had his minutes reduced well over a minute as the Bruins have been playing around with an extra forward on their unit.

Buffalo Sabres - In the arm pit of America Andrej Sekera (4:19) has seen an increase of 3+ minutes. Clarke MacArthur (2:56) is also up a minute and a half, with Nathan Paetsch (2:46) up a minute as well.

Calgary Flames - Mark Giordano (3:19) is getting a nice run on the Flames PP, as well as Adam Pardy (2:32). Dustin Boyd (1:24) is up marginally as well.

Carolina Hurricanes - For some reason a member of the Marian Havorik All-Stars, Tuomo Ruutu (4:58) is leading all Canes in PP ice time, up almost 2:30 from his 2008 totals. Why Sergei Samsonov (3:16) continues to get this type of PP run is beyond me. Dennis Seidenberg (3:08) is also working on a 30+ second increase.

Chicago Blackhawks - The biggest surprise in Chicago is the minutes rookie Kris Versteeg (2:57) is clocking. Dave Bolland (2:18) is also been rewarded with double his minutes. Troy Brouwer (2:09) is also getting a look as he is above the 2 minute mark.

Colorado Avalanche - Milan Hejduk (5:36) is up almost 2 minutes per game. Wojtek Wolski (1:30) and Brett Clark (1:18) have seen their minutes drop dramatically, with Clark seeing almost a two minute reduction. Sideshow Bob Darcy Tucker (2:04) is getting a good secondary run. I am pretty sure the Avs will not be happy with him taking 10 empty nets to score 2 goals.

Columbus Blue Jackets - Christian Backman (4:08) and Kriss Russell (3:53) seem to be the PP quarterbacks in Buckeye country, and people wonder why the Jackets have never made the playoffs. Jakub Voracek (2:34) and Derrick Brassard (2:51) are getting a nice rookie run, the same cannot be said for Nikita Filatov (0:05).

Dallas Stars - Stephane Robidas (5:30) has been the biggest beneficiary of Sergei Zubov's absence as he is up almost 3 minutes on his 2008 totals. Loui Erikkson (3:32) is also getting nice run, his PP time is up over 2 minutes. The wonderkid Fabian Brunnstrom (2:38) is also getting a nice secondary run.

Detroit Red Wings - The Wings are stacked and a player like Brad Stuart (0:09) is paying for it. He is used to 3+ minutes of PP time and is down to almost nothing in Motown. Dan Cleary (1:03) is down a minute and a half to just over a minute.

Edmonton Oilers - Dustin Penner (0:50) is down almost 3 minutes from his 2008 PP time due to the arrival of Erik Cole, Lubomir Visnovsky (4:29) has sucked up all the departed Pitkanen's minutes.

Florida Panthers - Cory Stillman (4:58) has stepped in and replaced Jokinen's minutes in Florida, Stephen Weiss (3:46) and Nathan Horton (4:45) and David Booth (3:04) have also benefitted from increased PP time in the Panthers youth movement. Cory Murphy (2:54) and Richard Zednik (2:21) have been the most affected by the deal as their minutes are substantially down.

Los Angeles Kings - Dustin Brown (4:50) and Jarret Stoll (4:39) have benefitted from the departure of Mike Cammalleri, they are up over a minute per game in PP minutes. Peter Harrold (4:12), Peter who? is getting a nice audition as he is up almost 4 minutes. Michael Handzus (3:37) and his hair are getting another chance to be an offensive contributor, up over 3 minutes per game. The Kings are also easing super prospects Jack Johnson (2:26) and Drew Doughty (4:06) into increased responsibility. How many Leaf fans would trade places with King fans right now?

Minnesota Wild - Mikko Koivu (4:42) has taken the ball and run with his extra minutes, as has Anti Miettenen (4:32). Benoit Pouliot (2:25), Tomas Mojzis (2:33) and Eric Belanger (2:59) have also been given a seconday look.

Montreal Canadiens - Sergei Kostitsyn (3:02) has been give a look as a Mark Streit replacement and other than a minor increase in Guillame Latendresse's (1:49) minutes, things remain mostly the same with the league's top unit.

Nashville Predators - Shea Weber (5:13) and Ryan Suter (4:53) have stepped into the void left by Marek Zidlicky. Ryan Jones (3:09) is also getting a nice look, usurping some of the minutes left behind by Alexander Radulov.

New Jersey Devils - Ansi Salmela (3:02) is averaging over 3 minutes per game, mind you it is only over a 3 game window. David Clarkson (1:43) and Mike Mottau (1:50) have also been given an opportunity, otherwise the same familiar faces on the Devils unit.

NY Islanders - Why is Kyle Okposo (1:02) averaging just over a minute per game? Is Doug Weight really going to be beneficial to this team beyond December? Why bother with this mess? Mark Streit (6:29), you ain't in Kansas anymore. No Markov or Kovalev to feed you the puck, good luck with that.

NY Rangers - Aaron Voros (2:13) is getting a chance to see what life is like outside the penalty box, remember, Tie Domi fancied himself a goal scorer one year. Whatever happened to Peter Prucha (0:41)?

Ottawa Senators - Filip Kuba (6:13) is receiving an obscene amount of ice time on the powerplay. Alexandre Picard (5:09) is also over 5 minutes and has been given an opportunity to make a fantasy impact. Nick Foligno (2:18) is also up over a minute and a half from his rookie season.

Philadelphia Flyers - Rookie Luca Sbisa (2:30) is getting every opportunity to make an impact as an 18 year old. With the lack of defensive depth in Philadelphia Steve Eminger (1:37) has been given a chance to untap the potential he had forecast for him as a junior.

Phoenix Coyotes - Michael Boedker (2:30) and Kyle Turris (2:27) have been given every opportunity to succeed as rookies. Kevin Porter (1:59) is also getting a look on the PP with close to two minutes per game.

Pittsburgh Penguins - Alex Goligoski (4:35) has received the bulk of the minutes on the PP due to the injuries to Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney. Kris Letang (2:38) has also been given an opportunity to fill the PP void. Jeff Taffe (2:29) and Tyler Kennedy (1:55) have also been given an opportunity to impact the powerful Penguins unit.

San Jose Sharks - Marc-Edouard Vlasic (3:41) is up almost 3 minutes over his 2008 totals replacing Rivet, Campbell, Ozolinsh and their minutes. Joe Pavelski (3:24) and Ryan Clowe's (3:24) power play minutes are also up over a minute.

St. Louis Blues - Lee Stempniak (4:33) is up over two minutes per game and rookies Alex Pietrangelo (2:45) and Patrick Berglund (2:02) have also been given a nice opportunity to make an offensive impact.

Tampa Bay Lightning - Paul Ranger (4:00) is up over two and a half minutes and seems to have inherited the keys to the powerplay from Dan Boyle. Off season acquisition Radim Vrbata (3:22) has also been given an opportunity to show that ownership's spending spree was not a waste. Matt Carle (2:47), Jamie Heward (2:31) and Janne Niskala (2:16) have also been rewarded an opportunity to replace the minutes from the departed Boyle.

Toronto Maple Leafs - The new look Leafs have plenty of benefactors of the departure of the majority of the Muskoka Five. Mike Van Ryn (3:14), Anton Stralman (3:00), Mikael Grabovski(3:08), Niklas Hagman (3:03) and Matt Stajan (3:03) are all receiving over three minutes per game.

Vancouver Canucks - Kyle Wellwood (3:36) the slacker with great offensive instincts is being given every opportunity to produce on the west coast. Jason Krog (3:25) and Steve Bernier (3:17) have also been given the chance to replace the departing Naslund and Morrison.

Washington Capitals - Brooks Laich (3:02), Tomas Fleischman (2:45) and Christopher Bourque (2:59) are getting increased minutes and a secondary opportunity to break through in 2009

Real or Illusion?

2008-10-28T20:23:00.001-07:00

In fantasy sports the first month of the season can unearth a ton of gems, it can determine the champion of your league.

But it could also lead to somebody dropping Scott Niedermayer for Filip Kuba.

No player cost more fantasy squads in the mid 90s than Mr. October himself Brian Savage. Savage used to explode out of the gate with 10-15 goals through 30 games and finish up the season in the low 20s. Picking up a guy who is destined to score 5 goals through the next 50 games is not exactly a shrewd buy. Well Buyer Beware. Fantasy Sense is here to determine who is a Savage and those likely to be the Anti-Savage.

Mikko Koivu - 25 - Minnesota Wild

Career High: 54 PTS 2009 Pace: 152 PTS

Koivu is the early fantasy darling of 2009. A huge start has the pre-season sleeper on a 152 pt pace and has inflated his keeper value to elite proportions. Mikko has positive factors for continued success in first line minutes, power play time and a lethal sniper in Gaborik on his wing, he also has the Wild's stifling system which can hold him back. Players do not jump from 54 pts to low 100s, but Koivu's breakout season is for real, and with this monster start should break PPG barrier. ANTI-SAVAGE

Paul Kariya - 34 - St. Louis Blues

Career High - 108 PTS 2009 Pace: 123 PTS

Even though on first glance it would appear that Kariya could return to 100+ points due to his career best, one has to realize that 108 PT season was 13 seasons ago. The last time Kariya broke 100 PTS, Eric Lindros was still considered a Superstar. Kariya exploded out of the gate in 2008 with 16 PTS in 12 games and finished the season with 49 PTS in his last 70 games to finish with 65. Even though Kariya is surrounded by rising young talent, he is screaming SAVAGE.

Patrick Sharp - 27 - Chicago Blackhawks

Career High - 62 PTS 2009 Pace: 110 PTS

Sharp is off to a flying start and was probably owned due to his breakout 2008 season. Although a 100+ point pace is very unlikely, the presence of Toews, Kane and Havlat make a career high likely this season. Sharp has made some nice gains in each of the last 3 seasons and will continue to improve this year. ANTI-SAVAGE

Zach Parise - 24 - New Jersey Devils

Career High - 65 PTS 2009 Pace: 113 PTS

Parise is a future All-Star and with his inspired start to the season is a good bet for a career year. Parise has been banging on the door of the elite wingers in the league for the last two seasons and I would be shocked if he did not breakthrough in 2009. He does suffer from playing on the conservative Devils, but from viewing him this season looks like an ANTI-SAVAGE

Filip Kuba - 32 - Ottawa Senators

Career High - 37 PTS 2009 Pace: 100 PTS

SAVAGE! SAVAGE! SAVAGE! If you are looking to add a defenseman who will score 30 PTS in the next 70 games then Filip Kuba is your man. Sure a jump in production was a possibility with a new role and responsibilities in Ottawa, but he screams sell high. SAVAGE

Aaron Voros - 27 - NY Rangers

Career High - 14 PTS 2009 Pace: 62 PTS

No need to waste minutes of your life that you can never get back with an explanation. 2 PTS in his last 7 games. SAVAGE

Shea Weber - 23 - Nashville Predators

Career High - 40 PTS 2009 Pace: 92 PTS

There is likely only one 80 PT defenseman in the NHL and he has a Norris trophy for every finger. But this kid is the real deal, the only reason he did not breakout last season was an early season knee injury that forced an uphill climb all year. Weber has all the skills to be an elite defenseman in the NHL for the next 15 years. ANTI-SAVAGE

Kris Versteeg - RW - Chicago Blackhawks

Career High - 8 PTS 2009 Pace: 73 PTS

The 22 year old is definitely worth a stash in a keeper league. With Kane and Havlat ahead of him on the depth chart the small speedy winger is unlikely to get the type of minutes to maintain this pace. He is not a can't miss prospect, but with the emergence of small speedy wingers in the NEW NHL, he could surprise a lot of people. SAVAGE FOR 2009

Pre-Season Projections

2008-10-23T16:17:00.001-07:00

Every season I deal with the onslaught of predictions from the experts of the fantasy hockey world.

In 2005-06 it was Carolina and Buffalo were the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference (both teams would make the Eastern Conference Finals that season), in 2007-08 it was the Montreal Canadiens would miss the playoffs, and we need to look no further then what is going on in baseball right now with the 100-1 longshot Tampa Rays.

This just in, the sportswriters of North America don't have a delorean in their driveway and access to Biff Tannen's Sports Almanac. Who will be injured? Will a stud from the minors emerge altering the existing food chain? Will one player make the leap and positively effect the point totals of their linemates? Will a coach fired mid season change the philosophy of a team from offensive to defensive effecting every players stats on the team? Will a player rebound from a terrible year? How will the powerplay minutes be distributed?

So guided by this knowledge why the hell do people buy into stat projections?

Take a look at Dobber hockey and their pre-season projections for the Montreal Canadiens last season.

Saku Koivu - 77GP - 20G - 49A - 69PTS - 56PTS
Well the Dobber nailed the GP. Koivu finished the season on the second line and struggled through a healthy season to finish up with 56 pts. He suffered his worst season since his rookie year which was preceded by a career year in 2007. That projection is the difference between picking Koivu 3-4 rounds to early in your draft

Alex Kovalev - 70 GP - 18G - 33A - 51PTS - 84PTS
Why not just post up the 2007 seasons stats and forego the prediction? Alex Kovalev had a HUGE season which resulted in 84 pts. His emergence helped Andrei Kostitsyn and Tomas Plekanec make a great statistical leap and knock Koivu, Higgins and Ryder to the 2nd line. This is one of the main pieces of evidence which show stat projections are useless.

Tomas Plekanec - 80 GP - 22G - 31A - 53PTS - 69PTS

Plekanec had a strong kick to finish up the 2007 season and had shown signs of blossoming, but this projection is very safe at best. Well, with 69 pts Plekanec ascended to the number one center position and with Kovalev and Kostitsyn became the number one line and powerplay unit.

Michael Ryder - 81GP - 30G - 30A - 60PTS - 31PTS

The poster boy for being ignored due to emerging talent. Ryder seemed like a lock for 30G and 55-60 pts because of his previous 3 seasons. Well Andrei Kostitsyn stole his first unit powerplay time and a demotion to the second and third line and the poor season by Koivu lead to Ryder a 31 pt season and a ticket out of town.

Carey Price - No Games Played - 24Wins

The expectation that Price would not make the NHL in 2008 was fairly unimaginative. After leading Hamilton to the Calder Cup as the MVP and with incumbent Cristobal Huet approaching a contract year it would have been pretty conservative for the Canadiens to leave Price in Hamilton. Price forced the Canadiens hand and was dominant down the stretch. One player being promoted changed the fortunes of Huet and Halak.

Fantasysense is just pointing out the lack of common sense in projecting situations that are impossible to predict. The projections are generally based on the previous season, so why not just view last season's stats and go from there? Players have comeback seasons, players have bad years, players get injured.

Most of these projections are safe because the individual prognisticator is interested in erring on the side of caution. They want the ability to toss out "well who knew he was going to play on the first line?" They undervalue with modest projections in order to save face. If they tell you that Plekanec is going to finish with 75+ points and he gets 50, the individual who drafted him will be pissed off at the prognosticator for wasting a pick to early. If they say 58 pts and he finishes with 70 pts, they puff out their chest and tell you I told you so. Huh? You told me 58, not 70. It is disingenuous and only serves to self promote, similar to the Trade deadline nonsense about "Sportsnet broke the story first", when in reality they got to air with it 45 seconds before TSN and 15 minutes after somebody reports it on a blog, messageboard or website.

I don't assume you are stupid, so I will not treat you as such. Fantasysense is not here to blow smoke up your ass and pretend to tell you the future. The purpose of this blog is to gather as much information as possible and provide you with common sense scenario's for a player's future production and potential. If you are looking for a different edge, this blog is step one.

The Links - October 20, 2008

2008-10-23T16:16:00.001-07:00

What is wrong in Big D? The Stars one of the best defensive teams in the NHL for a better part of a decade have struggled out of the gate and nobody's fantasy value has been hit worse than Marty Turco. Turco has averaged 35 wins a season, a miniscule 2.16 GAA and .912 SV% since he became the Stars starter in 2003. Fantasy season's are a marathon, so just consider this an early season blip. Dallas's new golden boy is off to a great start, the mysterious Brunstrom has exploded out of the gate.

The acquisition of Alex Tanguay in Montreal has provided early dividends. As the Canadiens second line seems to have rejuvenated captain Saku Koivu. The strong play of Guiliame Latendresse has also sent people to the waiver wire to add the right winger, even with the imminent return of Christopher Higgins it looks like Latendresse will remain on the second line. But all is not rosy in Montreal as Andrei Kostitsyn is out indefinitely, but his situation is improving.

Jason Williams, one of the pre-season favourites for the Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes has already found himself on the third line in Atlanta. The immediate benefactors so far have been Bryan Little and Todd White. Bryan Little should be followed closely as his success is not entirely dependant upon Kovlachuk, but first line minutes will result in him making fantasy noise a season early.

In Florida a fast start has new hero emerging. And some harsh words from the Beezer about franchise forward Nathan Horton. These are not the type of things you want to hear about a young talent like Nathan Horton, seeing as I was never a big fan of "the Beezer", I think I will give Horton the benefit of the doubt. Horton does need to step up this season to bury the underachiever label. One of the Muskoka Five is down and out already, will the powerplay suffer?

After a monster finish to the 2008 playoffs Phil Kessel looks to have taken the leap forward. Kessel looks to have gained confidence from his strong play in the B's comeback against Montreal and has started this season with some beautiful goals. He will continue to be an intriguing prospect to follow throughout the 2009 season. With the return of Manny Fernandez and Tuukka Rask looming will a goalie controversy erupt in Beantown?

You know you are struggling when John Mitchell is your first line center. Has there been a less important team in fantasy circles than the 2009 Toronto Maple Leafs? I know, I know. Luke Schenn is a future star.

Spezza demoted? Not exactly the end of the world for Spezza owners as he will still get his powerplay minutes. They still have no goaltending to the chagrin of all the die hard Sens fans and the delight of Leaf Nation.

Mr. Britney Spears has been promoted. Don't worry Mr. Quenneville, give it a couple of weeks and you will be cursing his name and praying a bag of cheetos will cure him of being a big pussy!

Another Koivu convert. Is Gaborik on the move? Bob Gainey would have to be drunk to make that move. With a slew of free agents to sign this summer and Carey Price to deal with in 2010 the Canadiens would create cap chaos with this move. Gaborik is overrated, as long as he continues his brittle ways I would not invest my fantasy dollars in him. Gaborik and Nolan are no surprise, but Bouchard is, here is hoping he can get healthy enough to reach his fantasy potential.

Congrats to James Mirtle and his new gig at from the rink

Carey Price - The future is NOW

2008-10-23T16:15:00.001-07:00

If you are in a standard 10 category NHL rotisserie league than you understand the importance of owning an elite goaltender.

When searching for a goaltender to build your franchise around ability is just not enough. Roberto Luongo has all world abilities, but if you invested in him as a 20 year old you had to go through 1 season with him getting shellacked on the Islanders, then 5 more facing more rubber than Jenna Jameson.

It took Luongo five seasons to post more than 30 wins. He put up elite numbers, but didn't become the fantasy stud he is now until his arrival in Vancouver. Keri Lehtonen, Rick Dipietro and Marc Andre Fleury were all highly regarded prospects who begun their careers with a bad to mediocre team.

Not many goaltenders have the ability and are able to make the leap to the NHL early in their careers with an elite level team. But those who do are worth their weight in fantasy gold. The ability to dominate individual categories as well as be the unquestioned starter who can carry you to 40+ wins yearly is a lynchpin to future fantasy success.

I understand that most have heard of the hype on Carey Price and I am sure that some were glad that he crashed and burned in the 2008 Playoffs. But a terrible finish should not alter one's view on his overall performance. The 2007-08 season should be viewed for what it was, one of the greatest performances by a 20 year old goaltender in NHL history. Upon closer inspection it becomes increasingly clear that what Price accomplished last season has been very understated.

Twenty year old goalies who start 40+ games in the NHL are a rare breed. Only eight twenty year old goalies have started more than 40 games since 1968 and only fifteen have started more than one playoff game. Only four have gone on to win a playoff round. (Roy, Burke, Moog and Carey Price).

Future peers like Martin Brodeur and Mikka Kipprusoff were toiling in the AHL, Europe or other professional leagues. The majority of his peers did not reach the NHL until their early to mid twenties. This removes them entirely from the discussion.

Only thirty-six 20 year old goaltenders have played more than 10 games at the NHL level since 1967. When you narrow that criteria to goalies who have won 10 or more games, you are left with only 16 NHL goalies since expansion.

The gold standard among the final sixteen are Patrick Roy in 1986 and Tom Barrasso in 1984. Patrick Roy's run to the 1986 Conn Smythe trophy is legendary and Barrasso's jump from high school hockey to the Calder and Vezina trophy stand alone.

Price's season cannot match up to the weight of those two seasons, but if all categories are weighted equally, Price stands alone.

Ranking each category among the thirty-six goaltenders shines a brilliant light on Price's 2008 campaign. I ranked each individual in games played, shutouts, goals against average, wins, winning percentage, save percentage and playoff wins. (click below).

Price ranked in the top ten in every category, while he finished top five in five categories.

Add in his World Junior MVP, CHL goalie of the year and the AHL playoff MVP award in 2007 and the kid screams can't miss. A fantastic start has made every owner who invested in him very happy in 2009.

Owners should hold onto him like they would Sidney Crosby or Dion Phaneuf. He will ascend to the fantasy king of the crease quicker than you may think. He is been pretty dominant in his first 50 games, it is downright scary to see how he will dominate the league when he matures and understands the players tendencies, and nuances of the pro game. He is almost untouchable in a keeper league. Go out and trade for him if possible and count your fantasy rings.

Has Mikko Koivu arrived?

2008-10-23T16:13:00.001-07:00

Mikko Koivu has probably caused a rush to the waiver wire this morning with his huge 5 point performance last night in Florida.

Koivu has now put up 9 points in the 3 games he has played this season. It would seem last nights Peter North size explosion appeared from nowhere, but that is not the case.

A broken leg last season seemed to overshadow his silent fantasy ascension last season. His 42 points may look modest but upon further review he was on a 60 pt pace in 08. Add in his four playoff goals while battling Peter Forsberg to a standstill and things were looking up for Saku's little brother in 2009.

A quick browse of his point total would show a digression in point totals, but when viewed in chart form it is clear that he was enjoying a great progression in 2008 even with his injury.

Mikko is much larger than his older brother yet possess the same high hockey IQ. He has gained a feisty edge and has the ability to control the tempo of a game to his liking.

With his ascension to the number one pivot with the departure of Pavol Demitra, a spike in his production was expected. A huge start will place him among the hottest pickups of the early season, but all the warning signs were there. Will he finish the season with 100+ points? Highly unlikely in the rigid Minnesota system, but an 80 point season is definitely within reach.

Who is your Fantasy Kryptonite?

2008-10-23T16:12:00.001-07:00

Anybody who is a fan of the BS Report or read Bill Simmons of ESPN is familiar with the term Fantasy Kryptonite.

Bill Simmons and Matthew Berry coined the term Fantasy Kryptonite as a way to assess those players who owners cannot resist. An underachieving player who year after year show just enough flashes of their potential that you will waste a high draft pick or waiver position on them . You know you shouldn't be making the selection, but you do it anyway only to complain all season to anybody who will listen.

For me that player is Martin Havlat. I owned Havlat for four seasons and every year he would explode out of the gate with a huge start only to fall prey to a strain, sprain or seperation. He is fantasy hockey's version of Britney Spears:

Game 1-20 - the rise to the top

Game 21-70 - the inevitable decline

Game 71-82 - not so bad again

You know looking at the latest version that it is photoshopped to hell, she is still a redneck and smells like cheetos but you wonder....maybe this comeback will work. You know damn well that what made her a star was washed out with Kevin Federline and 40k of liposuction and wigs, but just maybe she has kicked the cheetos and is misunderstood.......no chance.

So to me Martin Havlat is my fantasy kryptonite and the Britney Spears of Fantasy Hockey. I finally made my seperation last season and allowed somebody else to fall prey to Marty's siren song. But I know that if Havlat finally stays healthy and puts up an 80+ point season, the lure of Kane and Toews on the Hawks may lure me back in. For now I am free of his tyranny, but I cannot make any promises about the future.

Is there any reason to draft this guy?

2008-10-23T16:09:00.000-07:00

The Fantasy Sense All-Stars select George Parros with their 13th round selection.

To me this is a nightmare scenario. I know I am fighting an uphill battle on this subject, but does PIMs really have a valid place in Fantasy Hockey?

In a standard rotisserie league PIMs is an important category as any other. Nobody wants to punt a category and if you do not own Jarome Iginla, Dion Phaneuf or Chris Pronger you essentially have to go the route of the NHL and draft a player with essentially 1 category value.

Saving a place on my squad for Jarred Boll or Riley Cote at the price of a young exciting player like Mikko Koivu or David Perron appeals to me in no way.

What other fantasy league operates in this manner? Does baseball use Strikeouts as a category? Does basketball positively reward fouls committed? Does football give you 2 points per fumble or interception? It is nonsensical. Why reward individuals for putting a team at a disadvantage? When a player scores 80 points but maintains a -25 it effects his value in the NHL and fantasy equally, but when a player has 80 points and 10 PIMs it limits his fantasy value because he is disciplined, moves his feet and anticipates plays without costing his team? A great asset in reality but somehow this devalues his value in fantasy?

I understand the attitude of making the league as authentic as possible but using a starting roster position on a player who will count equally as every other starter but most likely will see 5-6 minutes per game is bizarre. If you seek authenticity why not add a salary cap as well? Fighting exists in hockey for a reason, intimidation, protection, entertainment but in fantasy hockey it can determine a championship, when was the last time an enforcer played any role in a Stanley Cup Final series?

Why reward Ryan Hollweg for maiming star players? Where is the sense in it? It is the Don Cherry mentality and Fantasy Sense will continue to follow, track and update those who are skilled at putting their teams a man short because we understand that it is a part of the fantasy hockey landscape. But for my personal league? No Thanks