Real or Illusion?

In fantasy sports the first month of the season can unearth a ton of gems, it can determine the champion of your league.

But it could also lead to somebody dropping Scott Niedermayer for Filip Kuba.

No player cost more fantasy squads in the mid 90s than Mr. October himself Brian Savage. Savage used to explode out of the gate with 10-15 goals through 30 games and finish up the season in the low 20s. Picking up a guy who is destined to score 5 goals through the next 50 games is not exactly a shrewd buy. Well Buyer Beware. Fantasy Sense is here to determine who is a Savage and those likely to be the Anti-Savage.

Mikko Koivu - 25 - Minnesota Wild

Career High: 54 PTS 2009 Pace: 152 PTS

Koivu is the early fantasy darling of 2009. A huge start has the pre-season sleeper on a 152 pt pace and has inflated his keeper value to elite proportions. Mikko has positive factors for continued success in first line minutes, power play time and a lethal sniper in Gaborik on his wing, he also has the Wild's stifling system which can hold him back. Players do not jump from 54 pts to low 100s, but Koivu's breakout season is for real, and with this monster start should break PPG barrier. ANTI-SAVAGE

Paul Kariya - 34 - St. Louis Blues

Career High - 108 PTS 2009 Pace: 123 PTS

Even though on first glance it would appear that Kariya could return to 100+ points due to his career best, one has to realize that 108 PT season was 13 seasons ago. The last time Kariya broke 100 PTS, Eric Lindros was still considered a Superstar. Kariya exploded out of the gate in 2008 with 16 PTS in 12 games and finished the season with 49 PTS in his last 70 games to finish with 65. Even though Kariya is surrounded by rising young talent, he is screaming SAVAGE.

Patrick Sharp - 27 - Chicago Blackhawks

Career High - 62 PTS 2009 Pace: 110 PTS

Sharp is off to a flying start and was probably owned due to his breakout 2008 season. Although a 100+ point pace is very unlikely, the presence of Toews, Kane and Havlat make a career high likely this season. Sharp has made some nice gains in each of the last 3 seasons and will continue to improve this year. ANTI-SAVAGE

Zach Parise - 24 - New Jersey Devils

Career High - 65 PTS 2009 Pace: 113 PTS

Parise is a future All-Star and with his inspired start to the season is a good bet for a career year. Parise has been banging on the door of the elite wingers in the league for the last two seasons and I would be shocked if he did not breakthrough in 2009. He does suffer from playing on the conservative Devils, but from viewing him this season looks like an ANTI-SAVAGE

Filip Kuba - 32 - Ottawa Senators

Career High - 37 PTS 2009 Pace: 100 PTS

SAVAGE! SAVAGE! SAVAGE! If you are looking to add a defenseman who will score 30 PTS in the next 70 games then Filip Kuba is your man. Sure a jump in production was a possibility with a new role and responsibilities in Ottawa, but he screams sell high. SAVAGE

Aaron Voros - 27 - NY Rangers

Career High - 14 PTS 2009 Pace: 62 PTS

No need to waste minutes of your life that you can never get back with an explanation. 2 PTS in his last 7 games. SAVAGE

Shea Weber - 23 - Nashville Predators

Career High - 40 PTS 2009 Pace: 92 PTS

There is likely only one 80 PT defenseman in the NHL and he has a Norris trophy for every finger. But this kid is the real deal, the only reason he did not breakout last season was an early season knee injury that forced an uphill climb all year. Weber has all the skills to be an elite defenseman in the NHL for the next 15 years. ANTI-SAVAGE

Kris Versteeg - RW - Chicago Blackhawks

Career High - 8 PTS 2009 Pace: 73 PTS

The 22 year old is definitely worth a stash in a keeper league. With Kane and Havlat ahead of him on the depth chart the small speedy winger is unlikely to get the type of minutes to maintain this pace. He is not a can't miss prospect, but with the emergence of small speedy wingers in the NEW NHL, he could surprise a lot of people. SAVAGE FOR 2009

Pre-Season Projections

Every season I deal with the onslaught of predictions from the experts of the fantasy hockey world.

In 2005-06 it was Carolina and Buffalo were the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference (both teams would make the Eastern Conference Finals that season), in 2007-08 it was the Montreal Canadiens would miss the playoffs, and we need to look no further then what is going on in baseball right now with the 100-1 longshot Tampa Rays.

This just in, the sportswriters of North America don't have a delorean in their driveway and access to Biff Tannen's Sports Almanac. Who will be injured? Will a stud from the minors emerge altering the existing food chain? Will one player make the leap and positively effect the point totals of their linemates? Will a coach fired mid season change the philosophy of a team from offensive to defensive effecting every players stats on the team? Will a player rebound from a terrible year? How will the powerplay minutes be distributed?

So guided by this knowledge why the hell do people buy into stat projections?

Take a look at Dobber hockey and their pre-season projections for the Montreal Canadiens last season.

Saku Koivu - 77GP - 20G - 49A - 69PTS - 56PTS
Well the Dobber nailed the GP. Koivu finished the season on the second line and struggled through a healthy season to finish up with 56 pts. He suffered his worst season since his rookie year which was preceded by a career year in 2007. That projection is the difference between picking Koivu 3-4 rounds to early in your draft

Alex Kovalev - 70 GP - 18G - 33A - 51PTS - 84PTS
Why not just post up the 2007 seasons stats and forego the prediction? Alex Kovalev had a HUGE season which resulted in 84 pts. His emergence helped Andrei Kostitsyn and Tomas Plekanec make a great statistical leap and knock Koivu, Higgins and Ryder to the 2nd line. This is one of the main pieces of evidence which show stat projections are useless.

Tomas Plekanec - 80 GP - 22G - 31A - 53PTS - 69PTS

Plekanec had a strong kick to finish up the 2007 season and had shown signs of blossoming, but this projection is very safe at best. Well, with 69 pts Plekanec ascended to the number one center position and with Kovalev and Kostitsyn became the number one line and powerplay unit.

Michael Ryder - 81GP - 30G - 30A - 60PTS - 31PTS

The poster boy for being ignored due to emerging talent. Ryder seemed like a lock for 30G and 55-60 pts because of his previous 3 seasons. Well Andrei Kostitsyn stole his first unit powerplay time and a demotion to the second and third line and the poor season by Koivu lead to Ryder a 31 pt season and a ticket out of town.

Carey Price - No Games Played - 24Wins

The expectation that Price would not make the NHL in 2008 was fairly unimaginative. After leading Hamilton to the Calder Cup as the MVP and with incumbent Cristobal Huet approaching a contract year it would have been pretty conservative for the Canadiens to leave Price in Hamilton. Price forced the Canadiens hand and was dominant down the stretch. One player being promoted changed the fortunes of Huet and Halak.

Fantasysense is just pointing out the lack of common sense in projecting situations that are impossible to predict. The projections are generally based on the previous season, so why not just view last season's stats and go from there? Players have comeback seasons, players have bad years, players get injured.

Most of these projections are safe because the individual prognisticator is interested in erring on the side of caution. They want the ability to toss out "well who knew he was going to play on the first line?" They undervalue with modest projections in order to save face. If they tell you that Plekanec is going to finish with 75+ points and he gets 50, the individual who drafted him will be pissed off at the prognosticator for wasting a pick to early. If they say 58 pts and he finishes with 70 pts, they puff out their chest and tell you I told you so. Huh? You told me 58, not 70. It is disingenuous and only serves to self promote, similar to the Trade deadline nonsense about "Sportsnet broke the story first", when in reality they got to air with it 45 seconds before TSN and 15 minutes after somebody reports it on a blog, messageboard or website.

I don't assume you are stupid, so I will not treat you as such. Fantasysense is not here to blow smoke up your ass and pretend to tell you the future. The purpose of this blog is to gather as much information as possible and provide you with common sense scenario's for a player's future production and potential. If you are looking for a different edge, this blog is step one.

The Links - October 20, 2008

What is wrong in Big D? The Stars one of the best defensive teams in the NHL for a better part of a decade have struggled out of the gate and nobody's fantasy value has been hit worse than Marty Turco. Turco has averaged 35 wins a season, a miniscule 2.16 GAA and .912 SV% since he became the Stars starter in 2003. Fantasy season's are a marathon, so just consider this an early season blip. Dallas's new golden boy is off to a great start, the mysterious Brunstrom has exploded out of the gate.

The acquisition of Alex Tanguay in Montreal has provided early dividends. As the Canadiens second line seems to have rejuvenated captain Saku Koivu. The strong play of Guiliame Latendresse has also sent people to the waiver wire to add the right winger, even with the imminent return of Christopher Higgins it looks like Latendresse will remain on the second line. But all is not rosy in Montreal as Andrei Kostitsyn is out indefinitely, but his situation is improving.

Jason Williams, one of the pre-season favourites for the Ilya Kovalchuk sweepstakes has already found himself on the third line in Atlanta. The immediate benefactors so far have been Bryan Little and Todd White. Bryan Little should be followed closely as his success is not entirely dependant upon Kovlachuk, but first line minutes will result in him making fantasy noise a season early.

In Florida a fast start has new hero emerging. And some harsh words from the Beezer about franchise forward Nathan Horton. These are not the type of things you want to hear about a young talent like Nathan Horton, seeing as I was never a big fan of "the Beezer", I think I will give Horton the benefit of the doubt. Horton does need to step up this season to bury the underachiever label. One of the Muskoka Five is down and out already, will the powerplay suffer?

After a monster finish to the 2008 playoffs Phil Kessel looks to have taken the leap forward. Kessel looks to have gained confidence from his strong play in the B's comeback against Montreal and has started this season with some beautiful goals. He will continue to be an intriguing prospect to follow throughout the 2009 season. With the return of Manny Fernandez and Tuukka Rask looming will a goalie controversy erupt in Beantown?

You know you are struggling when John Mitchell is your first line center. Has there been a less important team in fantasy circles than the 2009 Toronto Maple Leafs? I know, I know. Luke Schenn is a future star.

Spezza demoted? Not exactly the end of the world for Spezza owners as he will still get his powerplay minutes. They still have no goaltending to the chagrin of all the die hard Sens fans and the delight of Leaf Nation.

Mr. Britney Spears has been promoted. Don't worry Mr. Quenneville, give it a couple of weeks and you will be cursing his name and praying a bag of cheetos will cure him of being a big pussy!

Another Koivu convert. Is Gaborik on the move? Bob Gainey would have to be drunk to make that move. With a slew of free agents to sign this summer and Carey Price to deal with in 2010 the Canadiens would create cap chaos with this move. Gaborik is overrated, as long as he continues his brittle ways I would not invest my fantasy dollars in him. Gaborik and Nolan are no surprise, but Bouchard is, here is hoping he can get healthy enough to reach his fantasy potential.

Congrats to James Mirtle and his new gig at from the rink

Carey Price - The future is NOW

If you are in a standard 10 category NHL rotisserie league than you understand the importance of owning an elite goaltender.

When searching for a goaltender to build your franchise around ability is just not enough. Roberto Luongo has all world abilities, but if you invested in him as a 20 year old you had to go through 1 season with him getting shellacked on the Islanders, then 5 more facing more rubber than Jenna Jameson.

It took Luongo five seasons to post more than 30 wins. He put up elite numbers, but didn't become the fantasy stud he is now until his arrival in Vancouver. Keri Lehtonen, Rick Dipietro and Marc Andre Fleury were all highly regarded prospects who begun their careers with a bad to mediocre team.

Not many goaltenders have the ability and are able to make the leap to the NHL early in their careers with an elite level team. But those who do are worth their weight in fantasy gold. The ability to dominate individual categories as well as be the unquestioned starter who can carry you to 40+ wins yearly is a lynchpin to future fantasy success.

I understand that most have heard of the hype on Carey Price and I am sure that some were glad that he crashed and burned in the 2008 Playoffs. But a terrible finish should not alter one's view on his overall performance. The 2007-08 season should be viewed for what it was, one of the greatest performances by a 20 year old goaltender in NHL history. Upon closer inspection it becomes increasingly clear that what Price accomplished last season has been very understated.

Twenty year old goalies who start 40+ games in the NHL are a rare breed. Only eight twenty year old goalies have started more than 40 games since 1968 and only fifteen have started more than one playoff game. Only four have gone on to win a playoff round. (Roy, Burke, Moog and Carey Price).

Future peers like Martin Brodeur and Mikka Kipprusoff were toiling in the AHL, Europe or other professional leagues. The majority of his peers did not reach the NHL until their early to mid twenties. This removes them entirely from the discussion.

Only thirty-six 20 year old goaltenders have played more than 10 games at the NHL level since 1967. When you narrow that criteria to goalies who have won 10 or more games, you are left with only 16 NHL goalies since expansion.

The gold standard among the final sixteen are Patrick Roy in 1986 and Tom Barrasso in 1984. Patrick Roy's run to the 1986 Conn Smythe trophy is legendary and Barrasso's jump from high school hockey to the Calder and Vezina trophy stand alone.

Price's season cannot match up to the weight of those two seasons, but if all categories are weighted equally, Price stands alone.

Ranking each category among the thirty-six goaltenders shines a brilliant light on Price's 2008 campaign. I ranked each individual in games played, shutouts, goals against average, wins, winning percentage, save percentage and playoff wins. (click below).

Price ranked in the top ten in every category, while he finished top five in five categories.

Add in his World Junior MVP, CHL goalie of the year and the AHL playoff MVP award in 2007 and the kid screams can't miss. A fantastic start has made every owner who invested in him very happy in 2009.

Owners should hold onto him like they would Sidney Crosby or Dion Phaneuf. He will ascend to the fantasy king of the crease quicker than you may think. He is been pretty dominant in his first 50 games, it is downright scary to see how he will dominate the league when he matures and understands the players tendencies, and nuances of the pro game. He is almost untouchable in a keeper league. Go out and trade for him if possible and count your fantasy rings.

Has Mikko Koivu arrived?

Mikko Koivu has probably caused a rush to the waiver wire this morning with his huge 5 point performance last night in Florida.

Koivu has now put up 9 points in the 3 games he has played this season. It would seem last nights Peter North size explosion appeared from nowhere, but that is not the case.

A broken leg last season seemed to overshadow his silent fantasy ascension last season. His 42 points may look modest but upon further review he was on a 60 pt pace in 08. Add in his four playoff goals while battling Peter Forsberg to a standstill and things were looking up for Saku's little brother in 2009.

A quick browse of his point total would show a digression in point totals, but when viewed in chart form it is clear that he was enjoying a great progression in 2008 even with his injury.

Mikko is much larger than his older brother yet possess the same high hockey IQ. He has gained a feisty edge and has the ability to control the tempo of a game to his liking.

With his ascension to the number one pivot with the departure of Pavol Demitra, a spike in his production was expected. A huge start will place him among the hottest pickups of the early season, but all the warning signs were there. Will he finish the season with 100+ points? Highly unlikely in the rigid Minnesota system, but an 80 point season is definitely within reach.

Who is your Fantasy Kryptonite?

Anybody who is a fan of the BS Report or read Bill Simmons of ESPN is familiar with the term Fantasy Kryptonite.

Bill Simmons and Matthew Berry coined the term Fantasy Kryptonite as a way to assess those players who owners cannot resist. An underachieving player who year after year show just enough flashes of their potential that you will waste a high draft pick or waiver position on them . You know you shouldn't be making the selection, but you do it anyway only to complain all season to anybody who will listen.

For me that player is Martin Havlat. I owned Havlat for four seasons and every year he would explode out of the gate with a huge start only to fall prey to a strain, sprain or seperation. He is fantasy hockey's version of Britney Spears:

Game 1-20 - the rise to the top

Game 21-70 - the inevitable decline

Game 71-82 - not so bad again

You know looking at the latest version that it is photoshopped to hell, she is still a redneck and smells like cheetos but you wonder....maybe this comeback will work. You know damn well that what made her a star was washed out with Kevin Federline and 40k of liposuction and wigs, but just maybe she has kicked the cheetos and is misunderstood.......no chance.

So to me Martin Havlat is my fantasy kryptonite and the Britney Spears of Fantasy Hockey. I finally made my seperation last season and allowed somebody else to fall prey to Marty's siren song. But I know that if Havlat finally stays healthy and puts up an 80+ point season, the lure of Kane and Toews on the Hawks may lure me back in. For now I am free of his tyranny, but I cannot make any promises about the future.

Is there any reason to draft this guy?

The Fantasy Sense All-Stars select George Parros with their 13th round selection.

To me this is a nightmare scenario. I know I am fighting an uphill battle on this subject, but does PIMs really have a valid place in Fantasy Hockey?

In a standard rotisserie league PIMs is an important category as any other. Nobody wants to punt a category and if you do not own Jarome Iginla, Dion Phaneuf or Chris Pronger you essentially have to go the route of the NHL and draft a player with essentially 1 category value.

Saving a place on my squad for Jarred Boll or Riley Cote at the price of a young exciting player like Mikko Koivu or David Perron appeals to me in no way.

What other fantasy league operates in this manner? Does baseball use Strikeouts as a category? Does basketball positively reward fouls committed? Does football give you 2 points per fumble or interception? It is nonsensical. Why reward individuals for putting a team at a disadvantage? When a player scores 80 points but maintains a -25 it effects his value in the NHL and fantasy equally, but when a player has 80 points and 10 PIMs it limits his fantasy value because he is disciplined, moves his feet and anticipates plays without costing his team? A great asset in reality but somehow this devalues his value in fantasy?

I understand the attitude of making the league as authentic as possible but using a starting roster position on a player who will count equally as every other starter but most likely will see 5-6 minutes per game is bizarre. If you seek authenticity why not add a salary cap as well? Fighting exists in hockey for a reason, intimidation, protection, entertainment but in fantasy hockey it can determine a championship, when was the last time an enforcer played any role in a Stanley Cup Final series?

Why reward Ryan Hollweg for maiming star players? Where is the sense in it? It is the Don Cherry mentality and Fantasy Sense will continue to follow, track and update those who are skilled at putting their teams a man short because we understand that it is a part of the fantasy hockey landscape. But for my personal league? No Thanks